• MTS Economic News_20170816

    16 Aug 2017 | Economic News


· The dollar held near a three-week high on Wednesday against a trade-weighted basket of its rivals as strong U.S. retail sales data boosted risk appetite, though markets were wary of chasing gains due to lurking geopolitical risks.

The dollar index edged higher to 93.86 and was consolidating most of its overnight gains when it hit its highest level since July 26at 94.14 in the previous session.

The euro was steady at $1.1734, after falling as low as $1.1687 overnight, its lowest since late July.

· There should be no border posts between Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland after Brexit, Britain said in an early attempt to resolve one of the most complex aspects of its European Union exit.

The British government said in a paper due to be published on Wednesday that it wanted a seamless and frictionless frontier without "physical border infrastructure and border posts," arguing that new customs arrangements it proposed on Tuesday would allow the free flow of goods.

· South Korea finance minister said on Wednesday the government will act to stabilize financial markets if they become more volatile because of tensions between Pyongyang and Washington, but noted markets are already showing signs of stability.

"The government will closely monitor (financial) markets, and take measures to stabilize markets as needed in coordination with the Bank of Korea," Kim Dong-yeon said before a meeting with Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol.

· FOMC (July meeting) minutes Barclays:

We expect the minutes of the July FOMC meeting to provide further information regarding the timing of balance sheet normalization and the degree of consensus within the committee.

We think balance sheet normalization will likely start in September and the hurdle is quite high for the FOMC to deviate from what it has been signaling so far.

We will also look for more detail on how concerned the FOMC is with the incoming data on inflation.

Although we think concern has risen, we do not believe there is sufficient worry yet to derail a likely December rate hike.

· HSBC:

In July, the FOMC left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.00%-1.25%. The Committee announced in its policy statement that it expected to begin shrinking the Fed's balance sheet "relatively soon."

We expect the FOMC to formally announce the disinvestment program at its next policy meeting in September and to commence the program in October.

We expect the next 25bp hike in the federal funds rate to come in December.

In July, the FOMC repeated that it expected inflation on a "12-month basis" to remain below 2% in the near-term but to stabilize around 2% over the medium term. The July minutes are likely to show extensive discussion about the slowdown in inflation over the past several months. Some of the policymakers likely held to the view that diminishing labour market slack should eventually put upward pressure on inflation. Others may have argued the FOMC should be cautious with respect to additional policy rate hikes unless the inflation data start to pick up.

· Oil prices edged up on Wednesday, lifted by declining U.S. crude inventories, although markets were still restrained by general oversupply.

Market focus was turning to the release of official U.S. Energy Information Administration data later on Wednesday for a further update on inventories.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $51.06 per barrel at 0651 GMT, up 23 cents, or 0.45 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $47.71 a barrel, up 16 cents, or 0.3 percent.

Reference: Reuters,Forexlive,CNBC

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