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With a Fed decision queued up for tomorrow, let's take a look at how the rates picture has evolved this year.

The Fed has continued to act like speculators, placing bets on the prospects of fiscal stimulus and hotter growth. And they've proven not to be very good.

Remember, they finally kicked off their rate "normalization" plan in December 2015. With things relatively stable globally, the slow U.S. recovery still on path, and with U.S. stocks near the record highs, they pulled the trigger on a 25 basis point hike in late 2015. And they projected at that time to hike another four times over the coming year (2016).

Stocks proceeded to slide by 13% over the next month. Market interest rates (the 10-year yield) went down, not up, following the hike--and not by a little, but by a lot. The 10-year yield fell from 2.33% to 1.53% over the next two months. By April, the Fed walked back on their big promises for a tightening campaign. And the messaging began turning dark. The Fed went from talking about four hikes in a year, to talking about the prospects of going to negative interest rates.

That was until the U.S. elections. Suddenly, the outlook for the global economy changed, with the idea that big fiscal stimulus could be coming. So without any data justification for changing gears (for an institution that constantly beats the drum of "data dependence"), the Fed went right back to its hawkish mantra/tightening game plan.

With that, they hit the reset button in December, and went back to the old game plan. They hiked in December. They told us more were coming this year. And, so far, they've hiked in March and June.

Below is how the interest rate market has responded. Rates have gone lower after each hike. Just in the past couple of days, however, we returned to levels (and slightly above) where we stood going into the June hike.