- Oil markets forecasters see U.S. crude production rising in 2018, but disagree on how much it will grow.
- The flexibility in the U.S. shale oil patch is making it hard for forecasters to project U.S. growth, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.
A trio of closely watched energy organizations all raised their forecasts for American oil production this week, but the prognosticators can't seem to agree on one thing: Just how much more crude will U.S. drillers pump?
The flexibility and innovation in the U.S. shale oil patch — where new production can be started up quickly — is making it difficult for forecasters to make projections about American oil supply in 2018, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said in a monthly report on Thursday.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday said it expects U.S. output to grow by 780,000 barrels a day next year. The following day, the 14-member oil cartel OPEC forecast growth of 1.05 million barrels a day. And on Thursday, IEA said it sees the American oil patch raising output by 870,000 barrels a day.
Barclays analysts on Wednesday said U.S. production can grow by 1 million barrels a day next year even as drillers try to shape up their balance sheets.
Analysts at financial services company Stifel also think some publicly traded drillers can grow production without spending beyond their means as oil prices rise.
In September, the firm estimated that the drillers it covers would increase their oil volumes by 20 percent next year while outspending their cash flow by $3.2 billion. Last month, with forward oil prices having risen 9 percent from September, it said those companies can grow volumes by 18 percent while underspending cash flow by $3.1 billion.
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