Gold prices will average $1,280 an ounce in 2018, with buying interest, as an inflation hedge and due to loose monetary policy globally, offset by a strong U.S. dollar, said BMO Capital Markets in a report late Monday.
“A slow and steady interest-rate hike cycle proposed by the Federal Reserve and subdued investor demand are expected to keep prices in check and cap any significant upside potential,” the bank said.
Analysts described the metal as “remarkably stable” over the last two years, compared to the broader commodity complex, saying gold prices were range-bound during normalization of monetary policy and as dissipating geopolitical risks meant less safe-haven interest. This was offset by building inflationary pressures, which meant some market participants are looking to increase their allocation to gold as a hedge.
The bank’s $1,280-an-ounce outlook for gold in 2018 is a downward revision of 1.5% from its previous estimate. Analysts then look for a $1,250 gold average in 2019.
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