• The dollar rose against most currencies on Friday, bolstered by solid U.S. economic data that further supported consensus expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at next week’s monetary policy meeting.
U.S. industrial production surged in February, boosted by strong increases in output at factories and mines, while a consumer sentiment survey by the University of Michigan showed a rise in the overall index for March.
- In late trading, the dollar was down 0.2 percent at 106.08 yen after falling as low as 105.61 yen, the lowest since March 7.
- The dollar index was up 0.1 percent at 90.223. It has been on the defensive for much of the week amid the shake-up inside Trump’s administration and as next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting comes into focus.
- The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.2284, with little to drive the single currency higher.
• “A rate hike of 25 basis points on Wednesday is almost a foregone conclusion,” said James Chen, head of research at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey. Given the high expectations for a 25 basis-point rate hike, investors will be focused be on the Fed’s outlook for further hikes in 2018 and beyond, he added.
• The Fed meets this week and it's almost as good as gold that it would announce another gentle 25 bps hike, taking the fed funds rate to 1.50%-1.75% -- CME FedWatch Tool has the probability of a rate hike at 94.4% -- when the US central bank concludes its 2-day FOMC meeting on 21 March.
• As another U.S. government funding deadline looms, a huge spending bill is ground zero in the latest battle between Republicans and Democrats in Congress over President Donald Trump’s push to toughen immigration policy.
Lawmakers have until March 23 to work out how to fund an array of government agencies for the next six months. But their behind-the-scenes negotiations are complicated by the immigration issue.
• Forty-five U.S. trade associations representing some of the largest companies in the country are urging President Donald Trump not to impose tariffs on China, warning it would be “particularly harmful” to the U.S. economy and consumers.
• Britain has made its disappointment with U.S. import tariffs on metals known and is optimistic about a resolution, UK trade minister Liam Fox said on Friday.
The European Union is seeking an exemption for all 28 countries in the bloc, including the UK, from President Donald Trump’s import tariffs of 25 percent on steel and10 percent on aluminium.
• Prime Minister Theresa May said on Saturday Britain would consider its next steps alongside its allies in the coming days after Russia had earlier said it would expel23 British diplomats.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin won a landslide re-election victory on Sunday, extending his rule over the world’s largest country for another six years at a time when his ties with the West are on a hostile trajectory.
• China’s largely rubber-stamp parliament on Saturday unanimously re-elected Xi Jinping as the country’s president.
The legislature is packed with delegates loyal to the ruling Communist Party meaning Xi’s re-election was never in doubt. On Sunday parliament voted to amend the constitution to remove presidential term limits, meaning Xi can stay indefinitely.
• China has selected American-trained economist Yi Gang to become the country’s new central bank governor, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Sunday, citing unnamed people with knowledge of the matter.
The WSJ said the nomination of Yi, who is currently deputy to incumbent central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, was reviewed by the nearly 3,000 delegates attending the National People’s Congress on Sunday afternoon.
It said his appointment to the top post at the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) was set to be approved when the legislature reconvenes on Monday morning.
• The top national security advisers of the United States, South Korea and Japan met at the weekend to discuss North Korea and the “complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula”, South Korea’s presidential Blue House said on Monday.
The two days of meetings could also help prepare the way for a possible meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
• Three European Central Bank policymakers struck an optimistic tone on the outlook for euro zone inflation on Sunday despite stubbornly slow price growth so far this year.
The broadly positive picture painted by Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Klaas Knot and Jens Weidmann was likely to cement market expectations for the ECB to wind down its 2.55 trillion euro bond buys this year and start raising interest rates in 2019.
Euro zone consumer prices grew by a slower-than-expected 1.1 percent last month because of a fall in unprocessed food prices and reduced energy inflation, data from the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat showed last week.
• Positive economic developments and inflation forecasts could allow the European Central Bank to quickly end its bond purchases, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in a German newspaper interview to be published on Monday.
• Oil prices jumped on Friday, with Brent crude futures hitting their highest in more than two weeks as U.S. stock prices rose and investors covered short bets ahead of a weekend in which the U.S. news program “60 Minutes” will air an interview with Saudi Arabia’s crown prince.
• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will be on “60 Minutes” on Sunday “comparing Iran’s Ayatollah to Hitler, and the battle in Ghouta, Syria, is ramping up,” said John Kilduff, partner at investment manager Again Capital in New York. “You can’t be short oil over the weekend with all that going on in the region.”
- Brent futures rose $1.09 to settle at $66.21 a barrel, a 1.7 percent gain. During the session, Brent hit $66.42, its highest since Feb. 28.
- U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for April, which will expire on Tuesday, rose $1.15 to settle at $62.34 a barrel, a 1.9 percent gain. WTI hit a high of $62.54, its highest since March 7.
Brent futures gained 1 percent for the week, while WTI marked a weekly rise of 0.4 percent. It was the second straight weekly rise for both contracts.
Reference: Reuters, Financial Standard