• MTS Economic News_20180418

    18 Apr 2018 | Economic News

• The dollar inched higher from a three-week low on Tuesday, helped by falls in the euro and sterling, even as U.S. data eased concerns about a slowdown in the world’s largest economy. For now though, stronger-than-expected U.S. housing starts in March helped the dollar, as did a positive reading on industrial production.

The dollar index, as a result, advanced 0.1 percent to 89.526 .

The euro, meanwhile, fell 0.1 percent to $1.2365, after a monthly survey showed morale among German investors was deteriorating.

Investors, however, remained cautious about the greenback because of tension in the Middle East and a U.S. trade dispute with China.

The dollar earlier fell to a three-week low against a currency basket after President Donald Trump said on Monday that China and Russia were trying to devalue their currencies. Investors interpreted Trump’s comments as a nod to having a weaker currency.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, however, clarified Trump’s comments in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, saying the U.S. president’s remarks were a warning to those countries against devaluing their currencies.

Against the yen, the dollar was down 0.1 percent at 107.01 yen, off a seven-week high of 107.78 yen touched on Friday, before a meeting between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday and Wednesday.

• Although the expected meeting of leaders of North and South Korea next week has sparked reports that Kim Jong Un may agree to officially end the Korean War, Pyongyang does not view Seoul as an authorized participant in peace talks, a former CIA official told CNBC.

After nearly seven decades, the Korean War, which began on June 25, 1950, and lasted for three years, remains officially unresolved. When the war ended, the North agreed to a truce but not a peace treaty. As a result, the North and South have technically remained at war for the last 68 years.

The potential April 27 summit between the two Koreas will be their first face-to-face meeting since 2007. Notably, the two are set to meet in the South Korean village of Panmunjom, which would make Kim the first North Korean leader to cross the 38th parallel since the Korean War.

A possible meeting between Kim and President Donald Trump — which would be the first between two sitting leaders of North Korea and the United States — is also reportedly in the works. However, details of the arrangement are slim.

Trump said Tuesday that the Koreas have his "blessing" to try ending their war.

• President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the United States was engaged in direct talks at “extremely high levels” with North Korea to try to set up a summit between him and its leader, Kim Jong Un.

The president disclosed the direct talks as he and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe opened two days of talks at the president’s Mar-a-Lago retreat in Palm Beach, Florida.

Trump said he believed there was a lot of goodwill in the diplomatic push with North Korea, but added it was possible the summit - first proposed in March and which the president said could take place in late May or early June - may not happen.

• The two-year Treasury note yield rose to its highest level since 2008 on Tuesday after a top Federal Reserve official said he expects U.S. inflation to rise.

As of 1:59 p.m. ET, the two-year yield traded at 2.394 percent and hit a high of 2.402 percent. On Sept. 8, 2008, the two-year hit a high of 2.542 percent.

• The yield reached its near-decade high after San Francisco Fed President John Williams said Tuesday he expects U.S. inflation to rise to the U.S. central bank's 2percent goal this year and stay at or above that goal for "another couple of years." To keep the economy from overheating, he said, the Fed needs to keep raising interest rates.

Williams is set to replace William Dudley as the next New York Fed president.

• Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, said later on Tuesday he backs "patiently" raising rates while inflation remains low. "I think we have the opportunity to more patiently read — and react to — the incoming data," Evans said at a speech in Chicago.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve can stick to a series of gradual U.S. interest-rate increases over the next couple of years without much risk of an unhealthy surge in inflation.

• Head of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Raphael Bostic, is speaking at a conference hosted by Bloomberg Tax in Atlanta. Bostic hears consistent complaints about 'labor shortages'. The Fed's policy goals should be to develop a more neutral stance. The US economy is in a 'good place', healthy. Bostic expects inflation to begin building.

• U.S. President Donald Trump’s top banking regulator on Tuesday defended plans to ease lending rules and trading restrictions introduced following the 2007-2009global financial crisis during his first appearance before Congress.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles plays a key role in Trump’s pledge to spur economic growth by cutting red tape, but his proposals were challenged by Democratic lawmakers worried about creating new risks and harming consumers.

Quarles defended his first six months in office, outlining his work to simplify the so-called Volcker Rule banning banks from making profit-seeking trades on their own accounts. He also suggested reforming the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) that promotes lending to low-income communities.

• Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard on Tuesday said she supports updating banking regulations to help credit flow to low-income areas.

• Republican leaders in the U.S. Congress are moving forward with a plan to vote before the 2018 midterm elections on a bill to make permanent the temporary individual tax cuts in their recent tax overhaul.

It is not yet clear, however, if the plan would pick up support from Democrats, whose votes would be needed to pass legislation in the Senate.

Making the individual cuts permanent after 2025 would cost an additional $1.5 trillion over the next decade, according to a Tax Foundation analysis of data from the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation.

• The European Commission will put forward a proposed free-trade agreement with Japan for fast-track approval on Wednesday, hoping to avoid a repeat of the public protests that nearly derailed a trade pact with Canada two years ago.

The top U.S., Canadian and Mexican officials driving NAFTA renegotiations will meet in Washington on Thursday, a Canadian government source said on Tuesday, as pressure for a quick deal mounted.

• Russia told the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday there was no point establishing a new inquiry to determine blame for chemical weapons attacks in Syria because the United States and its allies had already acted as judge and executioner.

• Syria’s U.N. ambassador said a United Nations security team traveled to the Syrian town of Douma ahead of a planned visit by global chemical weapons experts on Wednesday to look into a suspected poison gas attack that sparked a U.S.-led retaliatory strike.

• Russia agreed to extend by six months overflight approvals for U.S. airlines, the U.S. State Department said on Tuesday, hours before an agreement on overflights was due to expire.

Additionally, the Russian Ministry of Transport extended approvals for all cargo flights from Asia to Europe through April 20 but proposed an alternative route after that date, which was being discussed, the State Department said.

• Japan’s exports rose 2.1 percent in March from a year earlier, Ministry of Finance data showed on Wednesday, due to a rebound in shipments to China.Imports fell 0.6 percent in the year to March, versus the median estimate of a 5.4 percent increase.

The trade balance came to a surplus of 797.3 billion yen ($7.45 billion), versus the median estimate of a 498.3 billion yen surplus.

• Oil prices rose on Tuesday, as support from the possibility of supply disruptions and a strong equities market offset the effects of profit-taking following last week’s rally above three-year highs.

Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 gained 16 cents to settle at $71.58 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures CLc1 rose 30 cents to settle at $66.52.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC, FXSTREET

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