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• The euro climbed half a percent to near three-week highs on Thursday following strong German data, though gains were capped before the release of Fed minutes later in the day.

German industrial orders bounced back in May with a stronger-than-expected jump after four consecutive monthly drops, as demand from domestic customers and the rest of the euro zone picked up.

Media reports that the European Central Bank may be preparing to raise interest rates by next September or October also helped the euro, though thin volumes were a factor, with U.S. markets shut overnight for Independence Day.

In early London trading, the single currency rallied to a high of $1.1711, just shy of a three-week peak of $1.1722.

But with a deadline for Washington to impose tariffs on Chinese imports also due, markets remained rangebound.

The offshore yuan was broadly steady at 6.6466 per dollar, some distance from Tuesday’s 11-month low of 6.7344, following reassuring remarks from Yi Gang, governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).

The dollar’s index against six rivals was 0.34 percent lower at 94.34, its lowest level in a week.

• The United States is “opening fire” on the world with its threatened tariffs, China warned on Thursday, saying it will respond the instant U.S. measures go into effect as the two countries locked horns in a bitter trade dispute.

The Trump administration’s tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports are due to go into effect at 0401 GMT on Friday, which is just after midday in Beijing.

• Global markets are bracing themselves as the deadline nears for the Trump administration to start charging tariffs on $34bn of imports from China, in what will mark the first shots fired in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Here’s a quick round-up of what analysts are saying on the eve of what could snowball into $1tn global trade war.

• Sean Callow, Westpac senior currency strategist, noted that markets have had enough time to price in the tariffs, but “for every investor who is worried about where this trade battle is heading, there is another who points out that this stage of the trade measures is not likely to have a large impact on corporate profits or growth in either the US or China”. He added:

But it seems far too optimistic to simply brush aside this phase of US-China tariffs. Trump’s 18 June statement threatening tariffs on up to $400bn of additional China imports hangs over Friday’s fully anticipated actions.

• Iris Pang, ING China economist, expected the renminbi will soften and China and Hong Kong stock markets generally to fall when China retaliates:

• Qi Gao, Scotiabank foreign exchange strategist, noted the upcoming release of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Thursday and China’s promise to respond to the US tariffs in equal measure:

If the minutes sound hawkish and if the US starts charging tariffs on Chinese products, it will certainly spark risk aversion across regional and global markets and send the dollar stronger versus EM Asian currencies including the yuan … In addition, commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar will drop as well. Copper prices will fall too.

• A model by economists at Pictet Asset Management in London reckons a 10 percent tariff on U.S. trade fully passed on to the consumer could tip the global economy into a state of stagflation and knock 2 and a half percent off corporate earnings.

But equally likely to be affected from the fallout of a full blown trade war are the economies of a number of countries that are tightly integrated into the global value chain - which companies increasingly use to fragment production of their goods.

It reveals countries like Taiwan, Hungary, the Czech Republic, South Korea, and Singapore could be equally if not more vulnerable to the risk of a trade spat than the two currently front and centre.

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday cut its 2018 forecast for German GDP growth to 2.2 percent, saying rising protectionism and the threat of a hard Brexit had exposed Europe's biggest economy to significant short-term risks.

The Washington-based lender, whose previous prediction from April was 2.5 percent, edged its 2019 forecast up to 2.1 percent from 2.0 percent.

The IMF welcomed plans by Chancellor Angela Merkel's new coalition government to raise public investments and support long-term growth, but it said Berlin could do more.

• The European Union is currently studying ways to prevent an escalation in trade tensions with the White House. Media reports earlier this week suggested the EU could propose a deal to the world’s biggest car exporters and thus prevent wider ramifications in case President Donald Trump moves ahead with a 25 percent tax on European carmarkers.

• Higher trade tariffs might just be what the euro zone needs to check how its economy is actually performing after several years of promising growth, a high-ranked European official told CNBC.

“This is a major risk that we see for the global economy and certainly for the relationship between the U.S. and Europe,” Mario Centeno, who heads the group of 19finance ministers for the euro area, told CNBC Wednesday, speaking on increased duties coming from the U.S.

The region grew at a rate of 2.4 percent in 2017 — an expansion not seen in about a decade. However, the economic momentum has cooled down in the start of 2018— something that higher trade barriers could dampen further.

• Oil prices fell on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump sent a strident tweet demanding that OPEC cut prices for crude.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $77.70 per barrel at 0653 GMT, down 54 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 37 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $73.77 per barrel.