• MTS Economic News_20180709

    9 Jul 2018 | Economic News

·         The dollar struggled near 3-1/2-week lows against its peers on Monday after U.S. jobs data showed slower-than-expected wage growth, while the pound retreated as a key member of Britain's cabinet resigned over Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plan.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies (DXY) was 0.15 percent lower at 93.877. (DXY).

It had lost nearly 0.5 percent on Friday and stooped to 93.921, its lowest since June 14, after closely-watched U.S. wages indicators disappointed the market.

The dollar was little changed at 110.42 yen <JPY=> after losing 0.2 percent on Friday.

The euro was 0.2 percent higher at $1.1765 (EUR=). The single currency had risen 0.45 percent on Friday, when it brushed $1.1768, its strongest since mid-June.

·         U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's visit to the hermetic regime prompted a bellicose response from the North Korean government, which hurled accusations of "gangster-like" diplomacy at Pompeo's efforts to encourage the country to lay down its nuclear arms. Pyongyang's response provoked new fears that a tenuous detente between North Korea and U.S. could already be nearing an end, even amid overtures from the totalitarian Communist regime.

·         The Bank of Japan maintained its upbeat economic assessment for all nine regions of the country on Monday and its governor voiced confidence that inflation will head toward his 2 percent target, suggesting that monetary policy will be on hold for the time being.

·         U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo brushed off North Korean charges that he used “gangster-like” diplomacy in negotiations in Pyongyang, saying on Sunday after meeting his Japanese and South Korean counterparts that he would keep pursuing denuclearization talks with North Korea.

·         Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), is scheduled to testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament about the economy, monetary policy, and virtual currencies in Brussels.

The EUR pairs could turn volatile during Draghi's speech and the common currency may pick up a strong bid if the central bank chief sounds hawkish on interest rates.

·         Today’s eco calendar is empty apart from ECB Draghi’s appearance in front of European parliament. ECB Coeuré overnight stressed that rapidly escalating trade tensions don’t derail the ECB’s plans as set out at the June policy meeting. The GC’s decision already took these risks into account. We expect Draghi to hold a similar line. The debate about the semantics of the ECB’s new forward guidance, to keep rates at least unchanged through the Summer of 2019, will be more interesting given the discussion on whether or not this includes the September meeting. ECB governors up until now generally ruled this out, but last week’s fuzz about changes to translations of the forward guidance on the central bank’s website suggested otherwise

·         The past week has seen the recovery in EURUSD gather steam with the break above notable resistance at 1.1720-25 confirming that the pair has based out at1.15, while signaling that the momentum is on the upside. As such, this opens a run in for the June 14th high at 1.1850, which is the final hurdle before a potential move towards the key 1.20 level. However, if the pair falls back towards 1.1600-50 could suggest another corrective move to test 1.1500-10 support zone.

Looking ahead towards next week, risks event on the docket for the Euro will be the US and German inflation figures. In regard to price action, a close above current resistance at 1.1753, which marks the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of the 1.2555-1.1508 could act provide support for the forthcoming week. On the downside, support also comes from the rising trendline from January 2017, residing at 1.1640 and coinciding with the 20DMA.

·         CMC’s Madden says: Traders will be listening carefully to the central banker’s speech as it may give away clues to possible changes to the monetary policy. Last month, the head of the ECB announced the bond-buying scheme would be wound down at the end of the year. Mr Draghi also suggested that interest rates are unlikely to be hiked until at least the back end of 2019. The currency bloc has been going through a mixed economic period, and Mr Draghi’s update could give an insight into what the central banker is thinking.

·         Oil prices steadied on Monday as an increase in U.S. drilling, likely to lead to higher shale production, balanced evidence of tightening supply.

Benchmark Brent was up 40 cents at $77.51 a barrel by 0750 GMT. U.S. crude was down 10 cents at $73.70.

·         The Oil Price Information Service's Tom Kloza recently estimated that prices could surge another 10 percent this summer — a rally that could hit consumers at the gas pumps.

"We can get into the $80s for Brent again, and I think we could get to $80 for WTI," the firm's global head of energy analysis said on CNBC's "Futures Now."

Kloza's thoughts came last Thursday as he was giving "Futures Now" an exclusive look at research coming out this week that holds predictions for 2018's second half.

According to the note, the odds are 50/50 that the nationwide average for unleaded gasoline will return to $3 a gallon or higher before the end of summer. He cited a hurricane slamming into the Gulf Coast as a leading bullish catalyst rather than a conflict between the United States and Iran.

·         Our research team has identified a potential major price rotation setup in crude oil that may be one of the biggest opportunities for traders in a long while. Traders need to be aware of this potential move because it could coincide with other news related to foreign markets/economies as well as supply/demand issues throughout the rest of this year.

Current price rotation to the upside has reached and stalled near an upper price channel and coincides with our Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Vibrational Theory price arcs. We believe this could be setting up for a big downside price move in the near future. Our interpretation of this setup is that oil will quickly find pricing pressures near the $74-$75 level and begin to move lower.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC,FXStreet,DailyFX

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