• The dollar eased a bit against most major currencies on positive trade talks between China and the European Union although softer economic data from China and Beijing’s escalating trade war with the United States tempered the enthusiasm.
The positive tone of the talks nudged up riskier currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as well as the euro, and in turn pushed the dollar index 0.2percent lower against a basket of major currencies to 94.608.
The dollar was mostly flat on the safe harbour yen at 112.38.
The Chinese yuan also dipped on the data but only briefly. It was last up 0.1 percent at 6.7014. It hit an 11-month trough of 6.7326 earlier this month amid worries about the economic hit to China’s exports from stiff U.S. tariffs.
• China on Monday posted second-quarter GDP growth of 6.7 percent from a year ago, slightly lower than 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2018 as Beijing has been cracking down on risky credit amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S.
.png)
· Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporation came with their outlook for the key events ahead.
The week’s US data highlight is today, when we see June retail sales. Consensus is for further strength: 0.6%mth total, 0.5% ex-autos & gasoline and 0.3% on the ‘control group’ which most closely matches the personal consumption expenditure component of GDP. Forecasts of Q2 GDP (due 27 July) will be sensitive to this report.
Also on the slate is the July manufacturing survey from the NY Fed (Empire State) which should remain very much on the bullish side."
· After months of exchanging long-distance compliments, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin sit down on Monday for their first ever summit, a potential political minefield at home for the U.S. president but a geopolitical win for his Russian counterpart.
Neither side expects major breakthroughs from the talks in the Finnish capital beyond warm words, an agreement to begin repairing battered U.S.-Russia relations, and maybe a deal to start talks on issues such as nuclear arms control and Syria.
· The top Republican lawmaker overseeing trade policies on Sunday called for a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping to ease trade tensions, warning that U.S. tariffs would likely dampen U.S. economic growth this year.
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady said U.S. tax cuts had helped drive stronger U.S. growth but trade tariffs on steel and aluminum, and against Chinese imports, could now undermine that impact.
· A U.S. intelligence assessment outlines what Russian President Vladimir Putin may ask of U.S. President Donald Trump during their first official dialogue in Helsinki on Monday.
The report, according to sources who spoke to CNBC on the condition of anonymity, says the Russian leader may ask Trump to stay out of the conflict in Ukraine and withdraw troops from eastern Syria.
· Oil prices fell on Monday as concerns about supply disruptions eased and Libyan ports resumed export activities, while traders eyed potential supply increases by Russia and other oil producers.
Brent crude futures were down 66 cents, or 0.9 percent, at $74.67 a barrel at 0645 GMT.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 57 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $70.43 a barrel.
· Investment bank JP Morgan on Friday raised its outlook for oil prices, but lowered its forecast for global crude demand-growth this year amid increasing uncertainty over international trade.
The U.S. bank said prices for Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil markets, would average $70 per barrel in both 2018 and 2019, up from an earlier forecast of $65 and $60 per barrel respectively. Brent stood at around $74 on Friday <LCOc1>.
Reference: Reuters, CNBC,FXStreet
Thai
Eng