• MTS Economic News_20180717

    17 Jul 2018 | Economic News

             The dollar was little changed on Tuesday as investors awaited further clues on monetary policy when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testify on the economy and monetary policy later in the day.

The U.S. Dollar Indexthat tracksthe dollar against abasket of six major currencies slipped 0.01%at 94.26 by 1:44AM ET (05:44 GMT).

The U.S. currency strengthened 0.1 percent against the yen to 112.4 yen , ticking up to a six-month high of 112.80 yen reached on July 13. Japanese markets reopened after a holiday on Monday.

The euro (EUR=) and British pound were also barely changed against the greenback. The single currency added 0.01 percent to $1.17125, while the pound was up0.04 percent at $1.3242.

·       EUR/USD bulls are still hanging above the 1.1700 figure as the market has been ranging for the last 10 hours.

EUR/USD is currently capped by a daily trendline and the daily 50-period simple moving average. The line-in-the-sand seems to be the 1.1730-1.1740 area. A breakout above the level can lead to an acceleration to 1.1790 and potentially open to gates to 1.1851-1.1854 area.

However, if the market remains contained below 1.1730-1.1740 area, the potential bull trap can lead to a rotation lower to 1.1672 and 1.1640-1.1649 area.

·       Powell will testify on the economy and monetary policy before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, followed by testimony on Wednesday to the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. He is likely to reiterate the Fed’s gradual monetary policy tightening, although any suggestion of caution on trade could unravel the market’s appetite for risk, analysts said.

However, if Powell makes any comments on global trade tensions and how that would affect the outlook for interest rates.

·       Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will defend the current pace of one interest-rate hike per quarter, economists said.

“I think he’s been a stick-to-the-path kind of guy,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics.

Powell will testify to the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m. on Tuesday, followed by a second day with the House Financial Services panel on Wednesday.

After raising rates in March and June, the Fed has penciled in two more interest-rate hikes this year. Markets expect the Fed to move in September and December

Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, says Powell will be on safe territory with members of Congress about the rate-hike path.

·       A wave of condemnation by U.S. lawmakers from both Republican and Democratic parties followed President Donald Trump’s failure at a Helsinki summit to warn Russian President Vladimir Putin about meddling in the 2016 U.S. election.

Republican Senator John McCain statement:

“Today’s press conference in Helsinki was one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory. The damage inflicted by President Trump’s naiveté, egotism, false equivalence, and sympathy for autocrats is difficult to calculate ... The summit in Helsinki was a tragic mistake.”

·       U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer called for a bipartisan effort to “ratchet up” sanctions on Moscow following U.S. President Donald Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki earlier on Monday.

Schumer, speaking at a news conference, also urged Republican congressional leaders to call the U.S. national security team that accompanied Trump to Helsinki to immediately testify before Congress.

·       China is still confident of hitting its economic growth target of around 6.5 percent this year despite views that it faces a bumpy second half as a trade row with the United States intensifies, the state planning agency said on Tuesday.

·       China’s new home prices accelerated to their fastest pace in almost two years in June, with buyer demand in bigger cities resilient in the face of fresh curbs against speculation, a sign more restrictions may be needed.

Average new home prices in China’s 70 major cities rose percent in June from a month earlier, higher than the previous month’s reading of 0.7 percent, according to Reuters calculations based on an official survey on Tuesday.

             Oil prices fell for a second day on Tuesday as worries about possible disruptions to supply eased and as investors focused on potential damage to global growth from the festering Sino-U.S. trade spat.

Brent crude futures fell 32 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $71.52 a barrel by 0638 GMT to the lowest since April 17. They fell 4.6 percent on Monday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down 31 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $67.75 a barrel. They declined 4.2 percent on Monday.

Meanwhile, an oil worker strike in Norway intensified on Monday when hundreds more walked out in a dispute over pay and pensions after employers failed to respond to union demands for a new offer.

The strike, which began last Tuesday, has had a limited impact on Norway’s oil production so far, but some drillers warned of possible contract cancellations if the dispute goes on for a month or more.

·       Crude oil extended the bear trend by almost 4% this Monday as the pullback up above 71.00 last Friday was fairly weak and was possibly indicative of lower prices.

Crude oil is now consolidating the strong move lower at around $68.00 a barrel. The pullback up might extend to 69.00-69.44 area. However, since the bear trend is so steep pullbacks might be very shallow. 

Targets to the downside can be located near 66.53, June 20 high and 65.71, June 22 low.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC, FXStreet

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