• MTS Economic News_20180802

    2 Aug 2018 | Economic News

• The Federal Reserve upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy Wednesday but decided to skip another interest rate increase for now.

In a widely expected move, the central bank's policymaking Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the target range for its benchmark rate at1.75 percent to 2 percent.

The statement said the labor market has "continued to strengthen," language consistent with the June meeting.

However, the committee went on to note that "economic activity has been rising at a strong rate," a more bullish view than the June characterization of "solid" growth.

• Traders in the fed funds futures market are indicating a 91.4 percent chance of a September increase and a 68.2 percent probability for another move in December, according to the CME's tracker. They would come on top of previous hikes in March and June.

• If President Donald Trump’s comments that the Federal Reserve risked killing U.S. economic growth with higher interest rates was even discussed at a policy meeting that ended on Wednesday, there was no sign of it as the central bank indicated it would stick with its forecast of two more rate increases this year.

• The U.S. dollar clung to gains against a basket of peers on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but characterized the economy as strong, keeping the central bank on track to increase borrowing costs in September.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.14 percent at 94.629.

Meanwhile, fears of an escalation in the trade dispute between the United States and China, and higher U.S. Treasury yields supported the greenback.

Worries about what an escalation in the months-long dispute would mean for the Chinese and then the global economy led investors to buy the dollar and sell currencies linked to China’s economic fortunes.

• The U.S. administration plans to propose a 25 percent tariff on $200 billion in Chinese imports, up from an original 10 percent, to pressure Beijing into making trade concessions, a source familiar with the matter said. China has vowed to retaliate.

• The offshore Chinese yuan slid more than half a percent on reports of the new tariffs. A survey showing Chinese manufacturing grew at the slowest pace in eight months in July also hurt the currency.

While an extended trade war could be a negative in the longer term, in the very near term simmering trade-related tensions are supportive of the greenback, said Minh Trang, senior foreign currency trader at Silicon Valley Bank in Santa Clara, California.

• The euro slipped 0.25 percent to $1.1662, under pressure from the stronger dollar and a Purchasing Managers’ Index survey that showed factory output was growing but had nudged up only slightly from June’s 18-month low.

• The U.S. administration will give an update on its planned tariffs on goods from China later on Wednesday, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said following reports that President Donald Trump was considering increasing the rate from 10 percent to 25 percent.

• U.S. manufacturing activity slowed in July amid signs that a robust economy and import tariffs were putting pressure on the supply chain, which could hurt production in the long term.

Other data on Wednesday showed private employers stepped up hiring in July, suggesting strength in the labor market and the overall economy at the start of the third quarter. The economy’s vibrancy was acknowledged by the Federal Reserve, which described activity as “rising at a strong rate.”

But analysts expect the economic momentum to slow because of capacity constraints at factories and cooling global demand.

• The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell to a reading of 58.1 last month from 60.2 in June. A reading above 50indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the U.S. economy.

• The ADP report is jointly developed with Moody’s Analytics. While it is not a good predictor of the private payrolls component of the government’s more comprehensive employment report, the report nonetheless supported expectations for solid job gains in July.

According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 190,000 in July after advancing by 213,000 positions in June.

• The Bank of England looks set to raise interest rates on Thursday to their highest level since the financial crisis almost a decade ago, defying warnings that it is taking a gamble ahead of Brexit, the terms of which remain unclear.

The world’s fifth-biggest economy has slowed since the referendum decision in June 2016 to leave the European Union.

And with less than eight months until it leaves the bloc, London and Brussels — as well as key members of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party — remain far apart on what the future trading relationship should look like.

But BoE Governor Mark Carney says that even if Britain’s economy is growing only modestly, it risks overheating unless borrowing costs rise from their crisis-era emergency lows, something the central bank began in November with its first rate hike in more than 10 years.

Nevertheless, investors have put almost a 90 percent chance on a hike in Bank Rate to 0.75 percent from 0.50 percent on Thursday, according to market prices.

• Oil prices fell about 2 percent on Wednesday as a surprise increase in U.S. crude stockpiles fed concerns about global oversupply, while investors worried that trade tensions could hit energy demand.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell $1.82 to settle at $72.39 a barrel, a 2.5 percent loss.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures fell $1.10 to settle at $67.66 a barrel, a 1.6 percent loss.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC

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