• MTS Economic News_20180904

    4 Sep 2018 | Economic News

• The dollar consolidated near a one-week high against a basket of currencies on Monday as tensions around global trade and a continued selloff in emerging markets fueled demand for the greenback.

The dollar .DXY was flat at 95.12 against a basket of major currencies, nearing its highest level since Aug. 27. It has gained nearly 7 percent since mid-April when trade tensions first arose.

• Investors are also jittery about emerging markets, many of which are seeing an exodus of capital. Countries such as Argentina and Turkey are already in crisis, with the Argentine peso falling more than 4 percent on the day against the dollar and the Turkish lira losing 2 percent ARS= TRY=.

Pressures are building elsewhere too, with the Indonesian rupiah hitting a 20-year low and the Indian rupee at a record low IDR= INR=

• The euro EUR=EBS slipped 0.11 percent against the dollar after data showed euro zone manufacturing growth slowing to a near two-year low in August as optimism dwindled due to the fears of an escalating global trade war.

• Consumer prices in Brazil likely stagnated in August as a slow economic recovery continued to weigh on employment, a Reuters poll showed, suggesting the central bank should be in no rush to raise interest rates despite a currency sell-off.

• U.S. President Donald Trump on Labor Day hit back at Richard Trumka, president of the United States’ largest federation of labor unions, after Trumka said on Sunday that the president’s policies had hurt American workers.

• Rapid technological advances cut inflation only marginally and temporarily, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said on Monday, weighing in on one of the biggest debates in modern central banking.

With much of the industrialized world struggling with anemic inflation levels, some economists argue that rapid technological development keeps a lid on prices, forcing central banks to exhaust their firepower fighting an economic paradigm shift, and leaving them with few tools for the next downturn.

• Energy expert John Kilduff counts Iran sanctions as the top reason West Texas Intermediate (WTI) could climb as much as 30 percent by winter, and that could spell $4 a gallon unleaded gasoline at the pumps.

"The global market is tight and it's getting tighter, and the big strangle around the market right now is what's in the process of happening with Iran and the Iran sanctions," the Again Capital founding partner said on CNBC's "Futures Now."

He added: "These Iranian barrels that we're going to lose, it's really going to hurt. It's really going to make a difference and tip the scale in my view to an upside surprise."

His thoughts came as WTI crude oil exceeded $70 a barrel on Thursday, and rallied to one month highs. According to Kilduff, there's a high likelihood the commodity will break $75 within weeks.

"To the extent we're seeing the Iran barrels lost to the market, you're looking at a WTI price and Brent in the $85 to $95 range, potentially," Kilduff said.

• Oil prices are unlikely to break out of the mid-$70 level, Oman's oil and gas minister told CNBC Monday, adding that he thought prices were currently "fair."

"I think for the rest of this year we should see stability between $70 and the high 70s (dollars a barrel), or low 70s to high 70s," Mohammed bin Hamad Al Rumhy, said.

He said current oil prices, around the $70-$80 mark per barrel, "will enable us to sustain our investment, and continue the business that will give us a guarantee of some form that the future is brighter than when the price was in the $30s and $40s a few years ago."

Asked whether he agreed with analyst expectations that oil prices could rise to $90 a barrel, he answered, "I don't think so."


Reference: Reuters, CNBC


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