• Gold fell for a second straight session on Monday as expectations of an interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September and fears of an escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions kept the dollar firm.
Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,193.15 as of 0655 GMT, having declined 0.4 percent in the previous session.
U.S. gold futures fell 0.2 percent to $1,198.60 an ounce.
• “The strong U.S. nonfarm payrolls led to some modest downward pressure on gold ... Going forward though, the U.S dollar will continue to weigh on gold, and as long as the dollar is strong, gold will remain constrained,” said John Sharma, an economist at National Australia Bank.
• Stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls data on Friday cemented expectations that the U.S. Fed will raise interest rates in September, in what would be its third hike this year.
• The dollar firmed against a basket of major currencies on Monday thanks to the jobs data and after U.S. President Donald Trump warned tariffs on a further $267 billion worth of Chinese imports, on top of earlier promises to levy duties on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
• “It appears that the U.S. will be able to weather the impact of the trade war for the time being, but the question is how long. With the imposition of tariffs, U.S. exports will be negatively impacted as well,” Sharma said.
• Gold has fallen over 8 percent this year as concerns over trade disputes, currency weakness in emerging markets and rising U.S. interest rates have strengthened the dollar, making bullion more expensive for buyers with other currencies.
• “The markets continue to look for that golden lining. But the primary issue is (safe) haven demand remains fleeting in the presence of the stronger dollar narrative,” said Stephen Innes, Asia-Pacific trading head at OANDA.
• Investors increased their bearish stances in COMEX gold and silver contracts to the biggest on record in the holiday-shortened week to Sept. 4, data showed.
• Holdings of gold by exchange traded funds have fallen over 4 million ounces since touching a peak in late April.
• While gold bulls are buying whenever there is a pull back to the low $1,190s, the general malaise for commodities, coupled with the stronger dollar, suggest sellers are emerging on the rallies, Innes said.
• Spot gold may revisit its Sept. 4 low of $1,189.20 per ounce, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.
• Among other precious metals, spot silver was up 0.1 percent at $14.12.
• Platinum rose 0.1 percent to $779.50, while palladium fell 0.8 percent to $972.97, after hitting over 11-week highs on Friday at $990.
• Wall Street and Main Street tilted toward bullish in the weekly Kitco News gold survey, although not by much, with the largest bloc of voters coming in at less than 50% in both polls.
Gold was nearly unchanged for the week going into the New York trading session Friday, before falling modestly after the Labor Department reported that U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 201,000during August. Average hourly earnings rose 10 cents, or 0.4%, the most in nearly a decade.
For the trading week now winding down, 50% of Wall Street voters and 48% of Main Street respondents were bullish. Just before 11 a.m. EDT, Comex December gold was down 0.2% for the week so far to $1,203.80 an ounce.
• Gold prices almost mirrored the previous week’s move. It remained in the clutches of a defined range but broke the $1200 mark which may cause some panic again in the bullish camp. The region from where the buying was visible is not yet breached even though $1198 has been broken on the chart. The discomforting factor apart from the break of $1200 is the formation of Lower highs and Lower lows which does not emit good vibes for the prices going ahead. The saving grace for the metal maybe the monthly chart which doesnt has room for a big downside given the bolinger bands but that implies to the whole month which is left.
Gold -0.17% broke the $1200 again in yet another rangebound week. Factors are split for the bullish and bearish cases as data points indicate confusion though a downmove cannot be ruled out once $1185 breaks, till then it may remain bullish . We have 2 scenarios –
Gold -0.17% latched on to the support of the buying region. If this is held it can head back up to $1198. If this is crossed it can move towards $1208. If this is taken out it can rally till $1217.
Again bearish trades doesn’t feature much but will open up once $1185 is taken out for the target of $1162 and $1123.
.png)
• Gold has established a lower highs pattern, as seen in the hourly chart below, and a break below $1,189 (Sep. 4 low) would establish a lower pattern and open the doors to re-test of Aug. 18 low) and $1,160 (Aug. 16 low).
A break below the immediate support at $1,189 looks likely as the USD, gold's biggest nemesis, could remain better bid today as data released on Friday showed the US wage growth figure rose at the quickest pace since 2009.
Further, the downward sloping 5-week and 10-week moving averages (MAs) indicate a bearish setup.
On the higher side, only a daily close above $1,207 (Sep. 6 high) could embolden the bulls.
Reference: Reuters,FXStreet,Trading View,Kitco
.png)
.png)
Thai
Eng