• MTS Economic News_20180918

    18 Sep 2018 | Economic News

• The dollar was slightly higher on Tuesday and China’s yuan fell as global markets braced for Beijing’s response to new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was up 0.09 percent at 94.585. The greenback in recent months has benefited from safe-haven flows amid the escalating Sino-U.S. trade conflict.

China’s yuan was a shade weaker at 6.8740 per dollar in onshore trade, though Chinese stocks managed slim gains.

The dollar was 0.1 percent higher at 111.94 yen. It had briefly dropped to 111.66 against the yen, another safe-haven currency that draws demand in times of market tensions and risk aversion, before bouncing back.

The euro was down 0.05 percent at $1.1678 after rising 0.5 percent the previous day.

Emerging market currencies including the Turkish lira, South African rand and the Mexican peso were all slightly lower on Tuesday.

• The greenback, tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), remains well on the defensive at the beginning of the week and is now testing daily lows in the mid-94.00s.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

As of writing the index is losing 0.54% at 94.47 facing the next support at 94.36 (low Sep.14) seconded by 94.20 (38.2% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 94.08 (low Jul.26). On the flip side, a break above 95.00 (high Sep.14) would target 95.06 (21-day SMA) en route to 95.74 (high Sep.4).
• EUR/USD Technical Analysis: EUR/USD bulls start the week by testing 1.1700 figure - 1.1750 is the main resistance to overcome

EUR/USD main bear trend is on hold for the sixth consecutive week as the market found a current 2018 low at the 1.1300 level.

EUR/USD bulls broke from the triangle compression pattern (blue lines) as they are keeping the bull momentum going. Their objective is to break above last week high (1.1722) in order to reach the 1.1750 key resistance level which was active this July. The RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators are bullishly configured.

A bear breakout below 1.1530 would invalidate the bullish bias

• Recession risk is low, even when looking out over the next three years, according to Goldman Sachs.

The firm said the chance of a U.S. recession is "muted" in the near term, and at 36 percent over the next three years, below the historical average.

• Washington's latest duties on Chinese products could push up auto prices and would be "painful" for Michigan, Governor Rick Snyder told CNBC on Tuesday.

The state is home to three of the country's largest automakers — General Motors, Ford Motor and Fiat Chrysler — and President Donald Trump's trade actions could increase car prices, Snyder told CNBC at the World Economic Forum in the Chinese city of Tianjin.

• The United States will spare Apple Inc’s Watch and other consumer gadgets from the latest round of tariffs on Chinese goods, according to a list of products released by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) on Monday.

But parts for the computer servers and networking gear that power “cloud” data centers and internet-based services now face a levy, as do some of the parts for the machines used to make semiconductors.

The United States did not include rare earth elements, metals used in magnets, radars and consumer electronics, from its final list of tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, underscoring its reliance on China for the strategic minerals.

• U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Monday the United States would cap the number of refugees allowed into the country at 30,000 for fiscal-year 2019, a sharp drop from a limit of45,000 it set for 2018.

• All "likely" Brexit outcomes will entail a financial hit for the U.K. economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Monday.

But, it said, a disorderly "no-deal" scenario — where Britain leaves the European Union without any kind of trading relationship in place — would be much worse.

"While all likely Brexit outcomes will entail costs for the U.K. economy by departing from the frictionless single market that now prevails, an agreement that minimizes the introduction of new tariff and non-tariff barriers would best protect growth and incomes in the U.K. and EU," the IMF said in its latest report on the outlook and risks to the world economy, published Monday.

• Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi on Tuesday called for an early solution to the escalating trade war between the United States and China, saying no country wanted tit-for-tat tariff retaliations.

He also reporters that Japan and the United States would likely make an announcement shortly on when they will hold their next bilateral trade meeting.

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Tuesday that he believed the central bank will pursue appropriate policy to achieve its 2 percent price stability goal, which he reckoned would take a long time to achieve.

• China likely will not send a trade delegation to Washington after the Trump Administration announced plans to implement tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, the South China Morning Post reported on Tuesday, citing an unidentified government source in Beijing.

• Beijing could be the wildcard in trade negotiations with Washington, according to Europe's second-largest fund manager.

"The bigger risk of a trade war lies in the Chinese side rather than the U.S. side," said Martin Gilbert, co-chief executive of global investment firm Standard Life Aberdeen.

President Donald Trump is used to making compromises in deal-making, Gilbert told CNBC's Nancy Hungerford on the sidelines of the Singapore Summit over the weekend. But "whether China will do that, I think is the bigger risk," he continued.

• The impact on China’s economy from Beijing’s and Washington’s ongoing trade war is not significant, but the impact on stock and currency markets needs to be watched, an adviser to China’s central bank said on Tuesday.

• Oil markets fell on Tuesday as the latest escalation in the Sino-U.S. trade war clouded the outlook for crude demand from the two countries, which are the world’s top two oil consumers.

Brent crude LCOc1 futures dropped 44 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $77.61 per barrel by 0424 GMT.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was down 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $68.62 per barrel.
·       Crude Oil WTI Technical Analysis: Triangle compression pattern can send WTI to $66.87 a barrel

 

Crude oil main bull trend is having a consolidation period.

Crude oil is consolidating last week decline and is currently forming a triangle compression pattern (green lines).

The RSI is at 47 and the MACD is turning south as both indicators are pointing to further losses. On a bear breakout, the initial target would be located near 66.87 (September low).



Reference: Reuters, CNBC

MTS Gold Co., Ltd.
40,42,44, Sapsin Road, Wang Burapha Phirom Sub-district, Pranakorn District, Bangkok, 10200
Tel. 0 2770 7777 Fax. 0 2623 9366 E-mail: support@mtsgoldgroup.com