• MTS Economic News_20181004

    4 Oct 2018 | Economic News

·         The dollar held at a six-week high on Thursday as an overnight jump in U.S. Treasury yields on the back of strong data prompted investors to add long bets in the greenback against higher-yielding and emerging market currencies.

Yields on benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury yields US10YT=RR jumped nearly 12 basis points on Wednesday, climbing to 3.23 percent, its highest levels since mid-2011 after private payrolls data was stronger than forecasts. [US/]

The combination of strong data and hawkish comments sent the dollar index =USD up 0.2 percent to 96.1, its highest since Aug. 20 and nearing a 2018 high of 96.99 hit in mid-August.

The widening selloff in emerging market currencies rippled into the core G10 FX space with the euro coming under pressure despite Italian budget concerns fading into the background.

The single currency EUR=EBS was trading flat at $1.1481 after hitting a six-week low in Asian trading at $1.1463.

·         EUR/USD Technical Analysis: EUR/USD falling below 1.1500 figure

EUR/USD bears are taking over the market as EUR/USD is now set to close the day below the key 1.1530 support and now trading bleow 1.1500 figure.

The break below 1.1500 can open the gates to further losses towards 1.1400 figure.

EUR/USD is trading below its main simple moving averages (SMA) while the RSI, MACD and Stochastics are in negative territories, suggesting a strong bearish bias.

Main trend:         Bearish
Resistance:   1.15001.15301.1569
Support:   1.14911.14001.1350

·         The World Bank slightly lowered its growth estimate for East Asia and the Pacific for next year as trade tensions and volatile capital flows cloud the global economic outlook.

The Washington-based lender said in a report on Thursday that the region’s developing economies should use the “full range” of available macroeconomic policies to cushion the impact of external shocks.

Growth in developing East Asia and the Pacific (EAP), which includes China, was on track to slow to 6.3 percent this year from 6.6 percent last year, the World Bank said in its Economic Update report, with 2019 growth expected at 6.0 percent.

The 2019 forecast is slower than the World Bank’s 6.1 percent estimate in April, reflecting a slowdown in China as it continues to rebalance its economy away from investment and towards domestic consumption.

China’s growth is projected to slow to 6.5 percent this year, the World Bank said, unchanged from its earlier estimate, but growth next year is expected to slow to 6.2 percent, compared to a previous projection of 6.3 percent.

·         Japanese carmaker Nissan said on Thursday a no-deal Brexit will have “serious implications” for British industry and urged Britain and the European Union to reach a deal on their future trading relationship.

·         India’s central bank is expected to raise rates for a third time since June on Friday to combat inflationary pressures as it grapples with a weakening rupee, surging oil prices and market instability sparked by a major non-bank finance firm’s defaults.

·         Crude oil prices continue to grind through resistance in the 75.00-77.54 area (August 2011 – June 2012 lows, 76.4% Fibonacci expansion). A daily close above its upper bound exposes the 100% level at 81.58. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 75.00 figure paves the way for a retest of the 50% Fib at 73.02.

·         Oil prices on Thursday slipped from four-year highs reached the previous session, pressured by rising U.S. inventories and after sources said Russia and Saudi Arabia struck a private deal in September to raise crude output.

Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were trading at $86.14 per barrel at 0651 GMT, down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close.

Brent on Wednesday hit a four-year high of $86.74 a barrel, lifted by expectations of a tightening market ahead of U.S. sanctions that will target Iran’s oil exports from next month.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLcwere down 18 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $76.23 a barrel.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC, DailyFX

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