• MTS Economic News_20181009

    9 Oct 2018 | Economic News

·       The dollar edged higher against a currency basket on Tuesday and the safe haven yen remained steady in cautious trade as rising U.S. bond yields and concerns over the outlook for global growth weighed on risk appetite.


The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.17% to 95.60 by 03:57 AM ET (07:57 AM GMT), not far from a six-week high of 95.78 reached last week.

The safe haven yen was holding steady against the dollar, with USD/JPY at 113.30 as investors also focused on the economic impact of the U.S.-China trade war and worries over the political situation in Europe.

The euro was hovering near last week’s one-and-a-half month lows, with EUR/USD slipping 0.14% to 1.1475 amid worries that the Italian government’s spending plans could trigger another round of the country’s debt crisis.

·       Donald Trump’s trade war with China and Europe is forecast to hit global growth this year and reverberate through 2019, the International Monetary Fund has warned in its latest health check on the global economy.

The escalation of the US president’s protectionist policies, which has resulted in the world’s largest economy doubling import duties on some Chinese goods, has dragged down the forecast for growth this year and next, with the world’s largest trading countries, including the US, France, Germany and China, among the hardest hit.

Britain is also expected to suffer slower growth against a backdrop of trade conflicts, though Brexit uncertainty continues to inflict the most harm to the UK’s outlook for expansion this year and next, IMF officials said.

The IMF said that even without a further deterioration in US and China relations, the global economy would grow this year at 3.7% and at the same rate in 2019 compared with the3.9% it predicted for both years in an interim report in April.

·       Defiant Republicans hope Kavanaugh fight will stoke mid-term voters

Republican Senators were defiant on Sunday, one day after Brett Kavanaugh was sworn in as the 114th Supreme Court justice, brushing aside concerns about how they handled the brutal confirmation process and the potential costs in next month's midterm elections.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, suggested that the GOP's base voters could reward them with strong turnout for standing by Kavanaugh in the face of sexual assault allegations that prompted protests and outrage from both sides of the political aisle.

Senate Democrats, disappointed by Kavanaugh's ascension, argued that many voters nationally - and women, in particular - remain infuriated by Republicans' treatment of Christine Blasey Ford, who detailed in emotional testimony her allegations that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her when they were teenagers. Kavanaugh has denied the allegations.

Representative Jerrold Nadler,  who would chair the House Judiciary Committee should Democrats win the House majority next month, has said he plans to launch an investigation of Kavanaugh if Democrats win power.

·       Women who led the charge in protesting against Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court have vowed to continue fighting in the wake of his historic confirmation, warning Republicans they could suffer a backlash in the midterm elections.

Some analysts have said the controversial nomination of Mr Kavanaugh – who is now the least popular Supreme Court justice in modern history – could ultimately see Republicans lose seats in vulnerable districts during the upcoming midterm elections.

·       German exports unexpectedly fell in August, data showed on Tuesday, in a fresh sign that manufacturers in Europe’s largest economy have shifted into a lower gear over the summer months.

The Federal Statistics Office said seasonally adjusted exports edged down by 0.1 percent on the month, missing a Reuters forecast of a 0.3 percent rise. Imports dropped by 2.7percent, undershooting a predicted 0.2 percent fall.

The seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened to 18.3 billion euros ($21.02 billion) in August from 15.9 billion in the previous month, the data showed.

Germany’s wider current account surplus, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments, rose to 15.3 billion euros from 15.1 billion euros in July, unadjusted data showed.

·       At least 40 lawmakers in Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party are willing to vote down her possible Brexit deal if it leaves the United Kingdom ‘half in and half out’ of the European Union, a senior rebel lawmaker said on Tuesday.

·       Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said on Tuesday that the government would not change its plan to increase deficit spending next year because it would curb the country’s unemployment while spurring the national income.

·       China must take strong stimulus measures to support growth, with the country in a “critical” period of stabilizing its economy, according to a commentary in the Global Times, a state-backed Chinese tabloid.

The planned cut to banks’ reserve requirement ratios (RRRs) would be the fourth reduction this year as China loosens credit conditions to support businesses and calm market jitters amid an intensifying trade war with the United States.

·       Oil prices rose on Tuesday as more evidence emerged that crude exports from Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, are declining in the run-up to the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions and as a hurricane moved across the Gulf of Mexico.

Brent crude was up 45 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $84.36 a barrel by 0629 GMT, having fallen as low as $82.66 in the previous session before largely recovering. Brent hit a four-year high of $86.74 last week.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 41 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $74.70 a barrel.

·       Crude Oil WTI Technical Analysis: Black Gold supported at $73.00 a barrel can see another leg up soon

Crude oil is trading in a bull trend as the 50100 and 200-period simple moving averages (SMA) are moving upward.

Crude oil found support at 73.00 as bulls are trying to find a base after the recent leg down. While the market can revisit 73.00-73.50range, oil is set to trade higher as it also found support above the 100 and 200 SMA. Targets can be located near 75.24 (July high) and76.00 figure

A bear breakout below 73.00 would invalidate the bullish bias.

Main Trend:         Bullish

Resistance:           74.0075.2475.88

Support:               73.0072.0071.45


Reference: Reuters, CNBC, DailyFX

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