• MTS Economic News_20181011

    11 Oct 2018 | Economic News

• The U.S. dollar, usually seen as a safe haven in turbulent times, surprised some currency strategists on Thursday by losing ground after spooked investors drove U.S. stocks to their worst fall in nearly eight months.

The dollar index, a gauge of its value against six major currencies, fell 0.31 percent to 95.21 on Thursday, after hitting a high of 95.79 in the previous session.

The safe-haven yen strengthened to 112.13 against the dollar, its highest level this month, taking heart from risk aversion in the wake of warnings from the IMF over global growth and financial stability.

The euro rose 0.35 percent to 1.1566 on Thursday after hitting a low of 1.1477 in the previous session.

• Jim Yong Kim, President of World Bank, is concerned by the US-China trade tensions and fears a clear economic slowdown if all countries went to the limit on tariff threats.

Key quotes

1China's economic growth slowing, but 6.5 percent growth still 'very good'.

2.Chinese authorities are very concerned about managing the level of China's indebtedness

3.Very concerned with the rising global debt levels.

4.More study needed to understand trade war effects on countries that supply China.

• International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director Christine Lagarde on Thursday urged China to follow through on the IMF's recommendation to continue moving toward a system that allows the yuan to move flexible, according to Reuters.

• International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde said Thursday she "would not associate" U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell "with craziness."

"I would not associate Jay Powell with craziness. No, no, he comes across, and members of his board, as extremely serious, solid and certainly keen to base their decisions on actual information, and decide to communicate that properly," she said, speaking to CNBC at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bali, Indonesia.

Lagarde made the comment in response to a question from CNBC's Geoff Cutmore about U.S. President Donald Trump. The American leader knocked the Fed on Wednesday for continuing to raise interest rates despite some recent market turbulence.

• The U.S.-China trade dispute is worrying because its hit to market confidence may be more significant than any real economic damage it inflicts, said Takehiko Nakao, president of the Asian Development Bank.

A rise in trade tensions — excluding any fallout to the automotive trade — will shave 1 and 0.2 percentage points off the growth rates of China and U.S. respectively, Nakao told CNBC on Thursday at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group in Bali.

However, if it escalates further, "people will start worrying about the credibility" of the multilateral free trade system that the world has believed in for so long, he warned.

"They're so connected through the global supply chain ... But if we start worrying about it, there'll be a lot of impact on the sentiment of consumers and investment," Nakao said.

The ADB president urged for the two to come to a deal.

"We must manage the trade, we must manage the feelings of national identity and so on," he said.

• Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai warned on Thursday the spread of protectionist trade measures was creating uncertainty in the global economy and could result in Japan’s economic growth performing below BOJ projections.

The BOJ’s policy board forecast Japan’s economy would grow 1.5 percent in the year to March 2019, and 0.8 percent in each of the following two years - a pace that the BOJ also considers to be its growth potential.
• Analysts at Nomura offered a preview for the key US event in US CPI.

"CPI: We forecast a 0.2% (0.244%) m-o-m increase in the core CPI for September following a 0.082% advance in August (Consensus: 0.2%). On a 12-month basis, our forecast would be equivalent to 2.304% in September (Consensus: 2.3%), up slightly from the 2.190% pace in August."

"The relative softness in core CPI inflation in August was mostly concentrated in certain volatile core goods prices. Thus, we think core CPI inflation will likely return to its underlying trend that seems consistent with core PCE inflation running slightly above or close to 2% y-o-y."

• PBOC Governort Yi says China’s credit growth Is appropriate, and will be able to achieve '18 growth target, Caixin reports.

• More trade deals like the recently concluded agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico, would help reduce uncertainty related to trade and economic growth, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Thursday.

• There is no immediate danger of Italy losing market access or being downgraded below investment grade because the Italian economy has underlying strengths, the head of the euro zone bailout fund ESM Klaus Regling said on Thursday.

• Oil fell to two-week lows on Thursday as it extended big losses from the previous session amid a rout in global stock markets, with prices also hit by an industry report showing U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected.

Supply worries also eased as Hurricane Michael likely spared oil assets from significant damage as it smashed into Florida, even as it caused at least one death, injuries and widespread destruction.

Brent crude LCOc1 futures were down $1.32, or 1.6 percent, at $81.77 a barrel by 0543 GMT. They earlier touched their lowest since Sept. 27 at $81.35, after closing 2.2 percent lower on Wednesday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures were down by $1.10, or 1.5 percent, at $72.07, having fallen to their lowest since Sept. 28. They dropped 2.4 percent in the previous session.

• CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are starting to make good on the formation of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern identified last week, breaking below support in the72.73-88 area. The next downside hurdle is in the 70.05-26 zone, but longer-term chart positioning hints a more profound down move is in the works. Alternatively, a turn back above 72.88 – now recast as resistance – paves the way for another challenge of the 75.00-77.31 region (August 2011 – June2012 lows).

• Oil headed for the biggest two-day drop since July, with fuels from diesel to gasoline also declining as fears over a worsening trade war rattled markets across the board.


Reference: Reuters,FX Street, Daily FX,Bloomberg

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