• The dollar fell modestly on Monday after three straight weeks of gains, pushing up the euro, with investors anxious a day before the U.S. midterm congressional elections because of possible fallout on the economy.
• The Democrats are favoured to wrest control of the U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday, and Republicans are expected to retain their majority in the Senate. That outcome would be a boon for the dollar, said analysts.
“We think a split Congress is the base case and favoured outcome for markets,” wrote analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman. They said such a scenario would maintain “the economic status quo” of tax cuts and reduced regulation while Democratic control of one chamber would provide “for some checks and balances on the Executive branch.”Single-party control of both chambers would be bad for the dollar, Brown Brothers Harriman said. Full Republican control could mean increased trade tension and a larger deficit, while full Democratic control could see a roll-back of the tax cuts and a more restrictive regulatory environment, the analysts said.
• Market analysts warned that an unexpected outcome could trigger a massive unwind of long dollar positions and undermine the greenback, which has rallied more than 7 percent from April lows against its rivals.
• The dollar index was down 13.3 basis points, last at 96.313. Last week, it hit a June 2017 high of 97.20.
• In the latest week ended Oct. 30, hedge funds added to their dollar holdings, bringing the value of net long dollar positions to $26.74 billion, the highest levels since December 2016.
• U.S. Treasury yields were lower as investors covered short positions ahead of midterm elections and braced for $83 billion worth of government debt supply tied to the November refunding this week.
Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 3/32 in price to yield 3.2027 percent, from 3.214 percent late on Friday.
The 30-year bond last rose 11/32 in price to yield 3.4353 percent, from 3.454 percent late on Friday.
• The euro on Monday was up by 17.6 basis points, last at $1.141, helped by the softer dollar rather than Europe’s economic fundamentals.
• Sterling was up 23 basis points at $1.305 as expectations grew that Britain and the European Union are inching closer to a Brexit deal.
• The midterm elections, which involve a combination of elections for the US Congress, governorships and local races, take place every two years.
• Republicans currently control the House of Representatives and the Senate – the two chambers which make up the US Congress. But pundits are suggesting the Democrats might take control.
With all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 out of the Senate’s 100 seats up for election, as well as 36 state governors, there are a lot of races to keep an eye on.
People will take to the polls across the 50 states from 1pm GMT on Tuesday November 6, with polls closing from midnight GMT onwards. Below are the last polling times for each state.
The votes will start to be counted as soon as the each polling station closes, which means results will trickle in over the early hours of the morning. We can expect a clear picture on what the elections mean for the country by 8am GMT.
Below are last polling times for each states:
• On Monday, CNN published a poll that found likely voters prefer a generic Democratic candidate by a 13-point margin, 55 percent to 42 percent. And that poll found just 39 percent of respondents approve of President Donald Trump's performance in office.
Democrats benefit from a massive gender gap that has persisted throughout the fall (women favor Democrats 62% to 35%, while men are about evenly divided, 49% back the Republican, while 48% support the Democrat in their district), a wide lead among political independents (53% for the Democrat to 39% for the Republican), and strong support from black and Latino voters (88% of black voters and 66% of Latino voters favor the Democrats).
• A poll from ABC News and The Washington Post released Sunday found 52 percent would choose a generic Democrat over a generic Republican for Congress, while 44 percent would choose the Republican.
• An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found a similar result, with 50 percent of likely voters favoring a Democratically controlled Congress and 43 percent favoring a Republican one. Among all registered voters, the race tightens further, to a 6-point lead for Democrats.
• The Trump administration on Monday renewed sanctions against hundreds of entities throughout Iran's energy sector and its broader economy, promising to exert more pressure on the Islamic Republic.
"The Iranian regime has a choice. It can either do a 180-degree turn from its outlaw course of action and act like a normal country or it can see its economy crumble," Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said at a press conference.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Monday said Tehran will evade the sanctions and keep pushing its oil barrels into the market, reiterating the nation's long-standing defiance.
• Pompeo on Monday released a list of countries that can continue importing Iranian oil for the time being, including Iran's top two customers, China and India. Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey are also on the list. The waivers will allow them to reduce their purchases over the coming weeks and months.
The reimplementation of U.S. sanctions on Iran will benefit the hard-line faction within the Middle East country, according to the Washington, D.C.-based National Iranian American Council
• The top U.S. military officer said on Monday that the United States would have to start making changes to its military posture on the Korean peninsula over time if talks with North Korea advance.
“The more successful we are in the diplomatic track, the more uncomfortable we will be in the military space,” Marine General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a forum at Duke University.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will meet with senior North Korean official Kim Yong Chol in New York on Thursday to discuss North Korea’s denuclearization, the U.S. State Department said on Monday.
The two will “discuss making progress on all four pillars of the Singapore Summit joint statement, including achieving the final, fully verified denuclearization of (North Korea),” the State Department said in a statement. U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un held a summit in Singapore in June, which was the first summit between a sitting U.S. president and a North Korean leader.
• Oil prices were mixed on Monday after a steep five-day fall, as the United States formally imposed punitive sanctions on Iran but granted eight countries temporary waivers allowing them to keep buying oil from the Islamic Republic.
Brent crude LCOc1 futures rose 34 cents to settle at $73.17 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures fell 4 cents to settle at $63.10 a barrel.
Reference: Reuters, CNBC, Telegraph, USATODAY, CNN