1. Democrats win the House, while the GOP holds the Senate and even gains a seat or two
What it would mean: If Democrats' House gain is somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 seats, that would be on a par with what often happens in midterm elections when the other party has the presidency. But it would be remarkable when you consider this: The GOP’s redistricting advantage after the 2010 election was so huge that we wondered whether it was even possible that Democrats could win back the House.
Republicans — and President Trump — would counter this by pointing out that they held the Senate or even gained seats (which is rare). But there, the map was even tougher, with Democrats defending 10 Trump states and Republicans defending only one won by Hillary Clinton. And a status quo election would actually set up Democrats very well to take over the chamber when they have much better opportunities in 2020 and 2022.
2. A blue wave consumes the House, and the Senate is tight
What it would mean: This would be a clear repudiation of Trump, and there would be no other way to spin it. We can argue about the definition of “wave,” but 40-45 seats certainly qualifies, and Democrats would also likely have at least a 50-50 tie in the Senate (though Vice President Pence would still give the GOP control).
3. Democrats somehow win both chambers, with the blue wave also consuming the Senate
What it would mean: Trump and the GOP losing both the House and the Senate would be a seismic shift, given the inherent advantage Republicans have on both maps. Immediately, talk would turn to how the 2016 election was perhaps a fluke and to how Trump’s divisiveness had backfired. And it wouldn’t be wrong.
4. Republicans save the House and gain ground in the Senate
What it would mean: Pundit chaos. It would suggest — again — that polls might be underselling Trump’s actual base of support and that we continue to fundamentally misunderstand what he’s doing to our political coalitions. It wouldn’t necessarily be a resounding affirmation of Trump — these are only red states the GOP would be winning — but it would lead to some real, justified soul-searching.
5. A wild card
Maybe the GOP narrowly holds the House, but Democrats keep the Senate close. Maybe Democrats win the House, but Republicans pick up a few Senate seats. Maybe Democrats pull a shocker in Tennessee and/or Texas but lose supposedly easier states.
What it would mean: The same as above — chaos — except less specifically partisan. The arguments about exactly what the election meant would be all over the place, and it would be tough to say anything with certainty, because we’d be entering a bona fide new political reality.
Reference: The Washingtom Post
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