• The dollar was essentially unchanged on Tuesday as Americans headed to the polls, its moves limited by investor caution about the U.S. midterm elections and any fallout for the world’s largest economy.
The greenback has outperformed most major currencies this year, benefiting from the robust U.S. economy and rising interest rates. Investors are focused on whether congressional elections could disrupt the stellar run of the world’s most liquid currency.
• The Democratic Party is expected to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives, with Republicans likely to retain their majority in the Senate. A split Congress may hurt the dollar temporarily: a Democratic win in one or both chambers is likely to be seen as a repudiation of President Donald Trump and the policies which have boosted corporate growth.
• The dollar index .DXY was down 3.6 basis points on the day to 96.296 against a basket of six rivals, which could suggest the market has a slight bias for a Democratic House victory.
• But although a divided Congress may lead to a short-term downturn in the dollar.
• Ultimately, analysts argue it may be the case that a split Congress would be a boon for the greenback in the long term. A fully Republican Congress could mean increased trade tension and a larger deficit. If Democrats take both houses, they may roll back tax cuts and reinstate regulations that were eased by the Republicans and which have helped corporate performance.
• “If the House changes hands, as long as the gridlock doesn’t create more issues for the economy, there’s nothing to impede the Fed from raising rates which would boost the dollar,” said Minh Trang, senior foreign exchange trader at Silicon Valley Bank.
• But some analysts warn that an unexpected outcome could trigger an unwinding of long positions on the dollar which has rallied more than 7 percent from April lows against its rivals.
• The euro EUR= was slightly higher at $1.141, about 1 percent above this year's trough of $1.130 touched on Aug. 15.
• A Brexit deal is close but not yet done due to differences over the Irish border, Britain and the European Union said on Tuesday as sterling see-sawed on contrasting perceptions of how hard it will be for Prime Minister Theresa May to clinch an agreement.
• Oil prices fell on Tuesday, with U.S. crude futures hitting an eight-month low, a day after Washington granted sanction waivers to top buyers of Iranian oil and as Iran said it has so far been able to sell as much oil as it needs to.
Brent crude LCOc1 futures fell $1.04 to settle at $72.13 a barrel, down 1.42 percent. The global benchmark hit a session low of $71.18 a barrel, the lowest price since Aug. 16.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures fell 89 cents, or 1.41 percent, to settle at $62.21 a barrel. The session low was $61.31 a barrel, the weakest price since March16.
• The top U.S. diplomat has granted an exception to certain U.S. sanctions that will allow the India-led development of a port in Iran as part of a new transportation corridor designed to boost Afghanistan’s economy, a State Department spokesman said on Tuesday.
The exception granted by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to U.S. sanctions reimposed on Iran on Monday also will permit the construction of a railway line from Chabahar port to Afghanistan, and for shipments to the war-torn country of non-sanctionable goods, like food and medicines, the spokesman said.
Reference: Reuters, CNBC, The Guardian