• MTS Economic News_20181112

    12 Nov 2018 | Economic News

• The dollar rose to a fresh 16-month high versus its key rivals on Monday as traders punished the euro and sterling on growing uncertainty over a smooth Brexit deal.

The U.S. currency has also been supported by the Federal Reserve, which last week reaffirmed its plan to raise interest rates next month and remained on track for two more potential rate hikes by mid-2019 thanks to an upbeat economy.

The dollar index .DXY, a gauge of its value against six major peers, added more than 0.5 percent to 97.42, levels visited in June 2017. It has strengthened four weeks in a row, having gained 0.4 percent last week.

• Sterling fell on Monday, helping to boost the dollar to a 16-month high, amid mounting doubts over whether Prime Minister Theresa May can come up with a Brexit deal that would win the backing of the European Union and her own party.

European shares were set to open higher, however, ignoring a broad flight from riskier assets seen in Asia, where equity markets wobbled on concerns about slowing global economic growth, particularly in China.

Financial spreadbetters expected London’s FTSE to open 0.8 percent higher, with Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC seen up 0.5 to 0.6 percent.

Facing resistance in her cabinet, May was forced to abandon plans for an emergency cabinet meeting on Monday to approve a Brexit deal, the Independent reported.

Sterling fell three-quarters of a percent to $1.2877, with Brexit pessimism spreading to the euro, on growing investor worries over whether an orderly deal to leave the European Union would be achieved.

• The EUR/USD could drop below 1.13 for the first time since June 2017 as the standoff between Rome and Brussels will likely lead to a widening of the yield spread between Italian government bonds and German bunds.

The daily chart shows that, after reaching the 38.2% retracement of its September/October decline mid-week, the pair retraced quickly, increasing chances of a bearish breakout in the upcoming days. In the same chart, the 20 SMA acted as dynamic resistance throughout the week, now accelerating south below the larger ones and converging with the 23.6%retracement of the mentioned decline around 1.1420.

The Momentum indicator stabilized within negative territory, while the RSI heads south, currently at 37, keeping the risk skewed to the downside.

• The GBP/USD gapped lower in Asia as rhetoric-heavy Brexit headlines over the weekend squashed hopes of November deal. The Sunday Times reported yesterday that four pro-EU British ministers are on the verge of quitting.

Ahead of the weekly opening, the daily chat shows that the pair is currently struggling with a mild bearish 20 DMA, as the Momentum indicator hovers around its mid-line and the RSI extends its decline into negative ground, all of which leans the risk toward the downside without confirming it just yet. In the 4 hours chart, the bearish strength is even clearer, as the20 SMA gains downward traction over 100 pips above the current level, while the pair settled below a directionless 200 EMA.

• China will study and implement tax cuts of a larger scale and more significant fee reductions for companies, the country’s finance minister Liu Kun said on Monday.

This year, China has lowered tax burdens for exporters and cut import tariffs for machinery and raw materials, Liu said in a statement on the ministry’s website.

• China will not set specific targets for each bank on how much loans should be given to private firms, and banks’ credit assessment standards will not be compromised, state-owned China Securities Journal said on Monday, citing regulatory sources.

The apparent attempt to calm market jitters came after investors worried that comments made by the head of the banking and insurance regulator last week might see the financial sector take on more riskier loans.

• Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday Beijing will further open up its economy in the face of rising protectionism, as he headed for meetings with Asia-Pacific leaders in Singapore that are expected to focus on trade tensions.

• The British parliament will vote down Prime Minister Theresa May’s possible Brexit so voters should be given a new referendum, May’s former education minister said on Monday.

Asked if there was any chance May’s plan could pass parliament, Justine Greening, who supported staying in the European Union, said “no”

• Britain's opposition Labour Party said that if Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal was voted down then it would push for a national election and also possibly another referendum, Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer said.

• Brent crude oil prices jumped by 2 percent on Monday after top exporter Saudi Arabia announced a supply cut in December, a measure likely aimed at halting a market slump that has seen crude decline by 20 percent since early October.

Front-month Brent crude futures LCOc1, a benchmark for global oil prices, were at $71.59 per barrel at 0644 GMT, up by 2 percent from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 1.5 percent to $61.08 per barrel.

Saudi Arabia plans to reduce oil supply to world markets by 0.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, its energy minister said on Sunday, as the OPEC power faces uncertain prospects in getting other producers to agree to a coordinated output cut.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC,FXStreet

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