• MTS Economic News_20181119

    19 Nov 2018 | Economic News

• The dollar eased slightly versus other major currencies on Monday after Federal Reserve officials expressed caution over the global growth outlook, prompting traders to reassess the pace of future U.S. interest rate increases.
The dollar index (DXY), a gauge of its value versus six major peers, traded marginally weaker at 96.45, adding to a decline of 0.5 percent on Friday. The dollar index had hit a 16-month high of 97.69 on Nov. 12.

The yen was fetching 112.68 on the dollar, up slightly on the day. The dollar lost 0.9 percent versus the yen last week as traders rushed into the safe-haven Japanese currency on concerns over U.S.-Sino trade tensions and political risks in Europe around Brexit and the Italian budget.

The euro (EUR=) dipped 0.1 percent in Asian trade, changing hands at $1.1403, having advanced over the last four trading sessions despite weaker economic fundamentals.

• British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Sunday that the number of letters required to trigger a no-confidence vote in the Parliament had not been met and a change in leadership will only delay Brexit.
Under the Conservative Party's own rules, 48 letters of no confidence in May are required to trigger a challenge. At least 20 have been made public and it's expected that a number of others have been sent but not declared.
If 48 Conservative MPs (Members of Parliament) back a no-confidence vote, there will be a leadership contest and the prime minister would need more than 50 percent of the vote to stay in office. On the plus side, should she win that vote, she could not be challenged again for at least a year. A vote could happen as early as Monday.

• The European Central Bank’s monetary policy will stay easy even after it probably stops adding to its pile of bonds next month and it can adapt its policy normalization as needed, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday.

• Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday warned that declining profits at regional banks could hurt the economy by potentially destabilizing the financial system.

Regional banks’ core profitability has continued to fall due to prolonged low interest rates, a shrinking population and falling number of firms operating in regional areas of Japan, Kuroda said in a speech at a seminar.

• Japan’s exports rebounded in the year to October, reversing from the prior month’s surprise drop as U.S.-bound car shipments grew, although slowing global demand and the intensifying U.S.-China trade war cloud the outlook for export-reliant Japan.

Ministry of Finance (MOF) data out on Monday showed exports rose 8.2 percent in October from a year before, slightly below a 9.0 percent gain expected by economists in a Reuters poll.

• British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Sunday toppling her would risk delaying Brexit and she would not let talk of a leadership challenge distract her from a critical week of negotiations with Brussels.

Prime Minister Theresa May’s suggestion that issues with the Brexit deal can be remedied in talks over its future ties with the bloc are “a tragic illusion” or “an attempt at deception,” former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said.

• Key points of Italy’s 2019 budget will not change, but there are “one thousand” ways to improve it if necessary, a senior government official said on Monday.

The government might decide to increase revenues in order to lower its debt, Cabinet Undersecretary for Regional affairs Stefano Buffagni said in an interview with daily newspaper La Repubblica, citing possible sales of properties or shares in companies.

The European Commission is expected to start disciplinary steps against Rome next Wednesday, a procedure which could eventually end in unprecedented fines for Italy.

• Investors and world leaders alike will be glued to the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Argentina, hoping for clues to what's next.

The G-20 meeting of the world's developed economies takes place in Buenos Aires from Nov. 30 to Dec. 1.

• Differences between the world's two biggest economies were on full display at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit over the weekend, resulting in the group's failure to agree on a joint communique for the first time in its history.

"I really think the big action's going to be in Argentina in a couple of weeks, so let's see what happens," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday, adding that "no one really knows" what will come out of the meeting.

In Buenos Aires, the two presidents are expected to meet each other with trade high on their agenda. Tensions between the two countries have dominated economic headlines this year, with both sides imposing tit-for-tat tariffs on each other's products.

• Asia-Pacific leaders failed to agree on a communique at a summit in Papua New Guinea on Sunday for the first time in their history as deep divisions between the United States and China over trade and investment stymied cooperation.

Competition between the United States and China over the Pacific was also thrown into focus with the U.S. and its Western allies launching a coordinated response to Beijing's Belt and Road program.

• The trade fight has resulted in the International Monetary Fund downgrading its global growth outlook for this year and next. American banking group Citi said some of its biggest clients have made plans to shift elements of their supply chains to circumvent those additional tariffs, because they expect negotiations between the U.S. and China to last more than a year.

Worries that U.S.-China tensions could impede growth have also rattled global markets. Hannah Anderson, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, advises investors to prepare for the rift between the two economic giants to drag on.

"I'm not particularly optimistic about a walk-back in trade tensions in the next six months," Anderson told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday.

"If there is an agreement or if there are some positive headlines out of G-20, it's much more likely that it's an effort to cool tensions and a symbolic statement of intent, rather than actual substantive change in resolving the trade tensions between the two countries," she said.

• Oil prices rose by around 1 percent on Monday amid expectations that top exporter Saudi Arabia will push producer club OPEC to cut supply towards year-end.

Front-month Brent crude oil futures were at $67.36 per barrel at 0655 GMT, up 60 cents, or 0.9 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, were up 71 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $57.17 per barrel.


Reference: Reuters

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