• MTS Economic News_20181120

    20 Nov 2018 | Economic News

• The dollar dropped to two-week lows on Monday, pressured by cautious comments about the U.S. economy from Federal Reserve officials suggesting the central bank may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle.

Against a basket of six major currencies, the greenback fell to 96.120, its lowest since Nov. 8, after falling nearly half a percent last week, its biggest weekly drop since late September.

The index was last down 0.29 percent at 96.18. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan on Friday raised concerns over a potential global slowdown that has markets betting heavily that the rate-hike cycle is on its last legs, even as they still signaled further interest rate increases ahead.

• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday also cited slowing global growth as a headwind to the U.S. economy. Capital Economics sees the federal funds rate peaking at 2.75-3.0 percent in mid-2019.

• "Although investors now think the rate will peak closer to the bottom of this range than the top...they are still a long way from discounting the substantial rate cuts that we anticipate in 2020 as the Fed responds to a sharp economic slowdown," said John Higgins, chief market economist, at Capital Economics in London.

• In a 2019 outlook note, strategists at Goldman Sachs said the greenback may decline as much as 6 percent against most of its developed market rivals, as the U.S. economy starts to slow with the impact from tax cuts and easy conditions fading through the year.

• The euro, meanwhile, rallied against the dollar despite concerns about negotiations between Brussels and Rome on Italy's budget plans. It was changing hands at $1.1454, up 0.32 percent, after hitting two-week highs earlier.

• Ned Rumpeltin, European head of FX strategy, at TD Securities in London, said a clear break above $1.1440, a minor trendline resistance, would target$1.15, while a close above that level would signal a change in trend in favor of the euro.

• Elsewhere, sterling remained in the spotlight with the currency expected to stay under pressure until the market gets more clarity on the progress of the Brexit deal.

It rose 0.15 percent versus the dollar to $1.2856 after a 1 percent drop last week as British Prime Minister Theresa May's draft EU divorce deal met with stiff opposition and several ministers resigned

• Treasury yields fell on Monday after the release of weaker-than-forecast housing data while concerns over global trade plagued investors.

The benchmark 10-year note yield slipped to 3.054 percent while the short-term two-year yield dipped to 2.775 percent. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Homebuilder sentiment dropped to its lowest level since August 2016 this month amid rising mortgage rates and unrelenting price growth.

• The British government on Monday pledged to publish economic forecasts that compare Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with remaining in the European Union, relenting to pressure from lawmakers who sought to force the government to do so.

More than 70 lawmakers, including several in May’s governing Conservative Party, had supported the so-called amendment to the finance bill, to demand the government publish the analysis before a vote on the deal comes before parliament.

May’s government has promised to publish a range of analyses to help lawmakers decide whether to back her plan for a close trading relationship with the EU after Brexit in a vote in parliament most likely to happen early next month.

• Moritz Kraemer, former chief sovereign analyst at S&P ratings agency, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday that, at current levels, it is clear markets remain underprepared for the prospect a no-deal Brexit.

A no-deal scenario is generally considered to be where the U.K. crashes out of the EU without any formal relationship and has to rely on WTO trading rules.

The U.K. currency has largely been viewed as a barometer of fear during Brexit negotiations, with sterling suffering steep losses against the dollar last week amid heightened political turmoil.

• The weekend’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Port Moresby was one of open disagreement, led by disputes between the United States and China over trade, security and which would be the better investment partner for the region.

Rather than cooperation, the theme seemed to be conflict and containment as Beijing and Washington directly criticized each other’s policies and staked their claims as to why they were the security and investment partner the Pacific should choose.

• Investors and world leaders alike will be glued to the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Argentina, hoping for clues to what's next.

"One gets the sense that he's (Trump) going to be a bit tougher with China" compared with Mexico and Canada, said Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. The G-20 meeting of the world's developed economies takes place in Buenos Aires from Nov. 30 to Dec. 1.

• Oil prices rose in choppy trade on Monday, under pressure from growing supply but supported by a reported drawdown of U.S. oil inventories, potential European Union sanctions on Iran and possible OPEC production cuts.

Brent crude futures were up 21 cents at $66.97 a barrel by 2:29 p.m. ET, off a session low of $65.27. U.S. futures ended Monday's session 68 cents higher at $56.76, after dropping as far as $55.08, near last week's one-year low.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC

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