• MTS Economic News_20181123

    23 Nov 2018 | Economic News

·         The euro briefly rallied to the day's highs on Thursday after Britain and the European Union agreed in principle to a text setting out their future relationship before a summit on Sunday.


European Council President Donald Tusk said the text had been discussed by British Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and plans to have a trading relationship on goods that is "as close as possible, with a view to facilitating the ease of legitimate trade."


The single currency rose as much as 0.4 percent on the news, hitting a day's high of $1.1434 before trimming gains to stand up 0.3 percent on the day at $1.14155. Sterling surged more than a percent to $1.2928.

·         The euro's gains stood in contrast to the dollar's weakness which slipped for a second consecutive day.


Against a basket of other currencies, the dollar fell 0.3 percent at 96.44, retreating further away from a near 1 1/2- year high of 97.693, hit earlier this month.


·         The latest bout of dollar weakness comes as investors start to question how many times the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates in 2019 without risking a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which has held up so far as borrowing costs have risen.


According to a Reuters poll published on Tuesday, the median analyst forecast is for three more increases next year, taking the federal funds rate to 3.00 to 3.25 percent by end of 2019. But the third rate rise is a close call.


The poll also showed economists now put the probability of a U.S. recession in the next two years at a median 35 percent.


·         Britain and the European Union have agreed a draft text setting out a close post-Brexit relationship, though wrangling with Spain over control of Gibraltar must still be settled before EU leaders meet on Sunday in order to rubber-stamp the pact.

British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal is the "worst of all worlds," opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said in the House of Commons on Thursday.

·         China rejected fresh U.S. accusations of perpetuating “unfair” trade practices and urged Washington on Thursday to stop making provocations, showing little sign of backing down days ahead a high-stakes meeting between leaders from both countries.

President Xi Jinping is due to hold talks with U.S President Donald Trump during a G20 summit in Argentina at the end of the month, with the rest of the world hoping they can find a way to de-escalate a trade war that is threatening the global economy.

·         Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Spain next Wednesday for an official visit expected to focus on trade and tourism.

Philippe Le Corre, a China specialist and senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, said Spain lagged its neighbor Portugal in attracting Chinese investment and is keen to get more.

·         Italy said on Thursday it would resist pressure from Brussels to revise its big-spending budget, effectively daring EU authorities to punish it with fines ahead of May’s European parliamentary elections.

The clash with the EU, whose fiscal rules designed to protect the euro zone from a debt crisis Brussels says Rome is breaking, is worrying investors.


It has dented the single currency and sent Italy’s borrowing costs surging and shares its banks tumbling.


But on Thursday, with the start of the Commission’s excessive deficit procedure having pushed back any action against Italy into next year, Italian bond yields fell sharply for a second day as investors chose to focus on conciliatory rather than confrontational comments.

 

·         Oil prices fell on Thursday after U.S. crude inventories swelled to their highest level since December adding to concerns about a global glut but OPEC talk of an output reduction limited losses.

Benchmark Brent fell 23 cents to $63.25 a barrel by 1212 GMT, after dropping by over $in early European trading. U.S. WTI fell more than a $before easing back to trade down 39 cents at $54.24.

 

Reference: Reuters, CNBC

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