• MTS Economic News_20181214

    14 Dec 2018 | Economic News

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·         The euro/dollar currency pair was at $1.1375 as Draghi begin speaking and fell to $1.1340 following the data release. On the day, the currency was lower by around 0.25 percent versus the dollar.


An index that tracks the greenback against the euro, sterling and four other currencies was 0.04 percent higher at 97.082.


The euro currency has slipped in value after the European Central Bank (ECB) trimmed its growth forecasts for this year and next.


·         The ECB's three-year, 2.6 trillion-euro ($3tn) bond buying program is ending this month, and the central bank has claimed it is still on track to raise rates after the summer of next year.


·         Delivering his prepared remarks to reporters in Frankfurt, ECB President Mario Draghi said 2018 growth in the euro area was expected to be 1.9 percent rather than the 2.0 percent forecast in September.


"The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook can still be assessed as broadly balanced. However, the balance of risk is moving to the downside owing to the persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility," Draghi said.


The 2019 GDP (gross domestic product) figure was also trimmed back to 1.7 percent from an earlier forecast of 1.8 percent.


Draghi argued that while headline inflation growth was likely to decrease in coming months, the picture for underlying inflation looked healthier.


"Measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted, but domestic cost pressures are continuing to strengthen and broaden amid high levels of capacity utilization and tightening labor markets, which is pushing up wage growth."

·         Britain’s weakened prime minister, Theresa May, appealed to fellow EU leaders on Thursday for concessions to help her win support in parliament next month for a deal that can smooth Britain’s exit from the European Union.

“Trust me,” Prime Minister Theresa May told other European Union leaders on Thursday, saying that with their help, she could win the British parliament’s backing for her Brexit deal and prevent a chaotic departure.

·         The risk of a U.S. recession in the next two years has risen to 40 percent, according to a Reuters poll of economists who also found a significant shift in expectations toward fewer Federal Reserve interest rate rises next year.

What has fueled concerns of a downturn is the flattening of the U.S. yield curve - with the spread between two- and 10-year note yields falling to less than 10 basis points, the smallest gap since the run-up to the last U.S. recession.

A flattening yield curve suggests investors believe economic growth and inflation will slow. A yield curve inversion has preceded almost all recessions over the last half-century.

·         Oil prices rose on Thursday, after data showed inventory declines in the United States and as investors began to expect that the global oil market could have a deficit sooner than they had previously thought.

OPEC’s output agreement with Russia and Canada’s decision to mandate production cuts could create an oil market supply deficit by the second quarter of next year, if the top producers stick to their deal, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report.


Benchmark Brent crude oil was up $1.19, or percent, at $61.34 per barrel by 2:28 p.m. ET. U.S. West Texas Intermediate light crude ended Thursday’s session up $1.43, or 2.8 percent, to $52.58.



Reference: CNBC, Reuters


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