• MTS Economic News_20181224

    24 Dec 2018 | Economic News

·  ·  • The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc gained on Monday, thanks to safe-haven buying as sentiment in financial markets remained fragile on heightened worries over political instability in the United States and fears of a global economic slowdown.

Trading volumes were thinning out with most global markets set to shut for Christmas, while Japan was closed on Monday for a holiday.

There was hardly any appetite among investors to take on risk, with a deteriorating outlook for global growth leaving stocks hurtling down for their worst quarterly performance since2008.

The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers, lost 0.2 percent to 96.76.

However, with the Fed signalling “some further gradual” rate hikes despite global risks, traders are growing increasingly nervous that higher borrowing costs would hurt corporate profits and put the brakes on the world’s biggest economy.

The yen gained 0.2 percent, changing hands at 111.03. The heightened fears over slowing global growth benefited the Japanese currency the most last week; it rose 2 percent on the U.S. dollar, and against the Australian dollar, the yen put on a sizable 4 percent.

The euro was up 0.2 percent and last fetched $1.1389 on the dollar.

• King dollar is preparing to end the year on a strong note, but its reign could come to an end next year as fears of a global economic slowdown could stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates aggressively in 2019, according to some analysts.

Derrick said that he thinks the euro could do well in an environment of slower economic growth.

“Basically Europe just has to stand still and maintain the status quo and the euro would look better than the U.S. dollar,” he said.

Currency analysts at ING see potential in Japanese yen as market volatility picks up through 2019. “We want to hold a strategic long JPY volatility position through 2019. The timing of the upside break-out is uncertain, so we opt for a calendar spread, selling 3m against buying 12m volatility,” the analysts said.

•USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Flattening out at 111.00

The Dollar-Yen pairing is cycling around the 111.00 handle as investors buckle down for the holiday shutdown.

USD/JPY continues to push towards low-side support from 110.90 as the US Dollar sees selling pressure in the near-term.

Short-side action over the past two months has seen USD/JPY break into new low territory, and Dollar bidders will be looking to build a base from the 111.00 handle, though the walkback to highs near 114.00 is a long one, and medium-term short-sellers can be expected to begin building out fresh position from the 112.50 midpoint.

•Volatility on Wall Street has led shares worldwide on a wild ride in recent months, resulting in a number of stock markets dipping into bear territory — typically defined as 20percent or more off a recent peak.

That's set to worsen in the new year, experts told CNBC on Monday, pointing to risks including the Federal Reserve likely raising interest rates further and mounting concerns about a global economic slowdown.

"I think the worst is yet to come next year, we're still in the first half of a global equity bear market with more to come next year," said Mark Jolley, global strategist at CCB International Securities.

• Following weeks of talks between President Donald Trump and congressional leaders, parts of the U.S. government shut down on Saturday after negotiators reached an impasse over a deal to keep the government fully funded.

At issue was funding for a wall along the country’s southern border with Mexico. The House of Representatives passed a bill that included $5 billion Trump had demanded for a wall, but the Senate included considerably less money for border security.

The partial shutdown will affect about 15 percent of the federal workforce, a senior administration official said on Saturday, as a majority of agencies and departments, including the Department of Defense and the Postal Service, already have secured funding.

Still, some 800,000 employees from the Departments of Homeland Security, Transportation and others will be affected.

According to the American Federation of Government Employees, 420,000 people who have been deemed “essential” must work without pay, while 380,000 others will not be able to report for work at all.

• China’s housing ministry said it will stabilize land and home prices in 2019 and firmly curb speculation in the property market, the state television reported on Monday.

Beijing will guide medium- to big cities to develop a rental housing market and increase effective supply of public rental housing in the next year, CCTV reported, citing a meeting of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of China.

• China plans to remove import and export tariffs in 2019 on a range of goods, including import taxes on alternative meals used in animal feed, to secure supplies of raw materials amid trade tensions with the United States and boosting outbound cargoes.

Import tariffs on so-called alternative meals, which include rapeseed meal, cotton meal, sunflower meal and palm meal, will be removed from Jan. 1, 2019, the finance ministry said in a statement on its website on Monday.

• Oil prices rose more than 1 percent on Monday on signs that the recent price plunge may start crimping supply from the U.S.,currently the world’s biggest oil producer, though concerns about global economy continues to weigh.

International benchmark Brent crude futures rose 60 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $54.42 a barrel at 0408 GMT. Prices climbed to as high as $54.66.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 37 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $45.96 a barrel after earlier climbing to as high as $46.24.

Crude prices rebounded from a sharp declines last week. Brent fell 11 percent for the week, dropping to its lowest since September 2017 on Friday, while WTI also dropped 11 percent last week, its worst weekly performance since January 2016.

Both benchmarks down more than 35 percent from their recent peaks in early October.


Reference: Reuters,CNBC

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