• MTS Economic News_20190103

    3 Jan 2019 | Economic News

•· U.S. government debt prices rose on Wednesday as weaker-than-expected data from China, Europe and the U.S. fueled concerns of an economic slowdown over the coming months.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, was lower at 2.677 percent, near its lowest levels since late January 2017. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at 3.02 percent. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

It comes after a private sector survey showed manufacturing activity in China, the world’s second-largest economy, contracted for the first time in 19months. China’s Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December dipped to 49.7 from 50.2 in November.

Meanwhile, the euro zone manufacturing PMI remained at its lowest level since February 2016, according to IHS Markit. The data also showed confidence about the future hit a fresh six-year low. In the U.S., the IHS Markit manufacturing PMI slipped to a 15-month low in December.

The data prompted investors to load up on Treasurys, which are considered to be a safer investment than equities because they are typically not as volatile.

• The U.S. dollar climbed against the euro and sterling on Monday, starting the new year on a strong footing, but fell against the safe-haven Japanese yen as investors remained wary of slowing global growth and volatile equity markets. 

The euro fell 1.11 percent against the U.S. dollar, following weak manufacturing data from Spain, France, Italy, and Germany. 

The U.S. dollar climbed against the euro and sterling on Monday, starting the new year on a strong footing, but fell against the safe-haven Japanese yen as investors remained wary of slowing global growth and volatile equity markets. 

The euro fell 1.11 percent against the U.S. dollar, following weak manufacturing data from Spain, France, Italy, and Germany.

Factory activity weakened across much of Europe and Asia in December as the U.S.-China trade war and a slowdown in demand hit production in many economies, offering little reason for optimism as the new year began.

Traders expect the single currency to remain under pressure as both growth and inflation in the euro zone remain below the European Central Bank’s expectations.

Sterling fell 1.2 percent, reversing gains notched earlier this week, as strong factory surveys failed to dispel growing concerns over Brexit negotiations.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 96.661 after touching an earlier low of 95.820.

The Japanese yen saw a giant move higher versus the U.S. dollar (about 2 percent) as investors sought safety in the Japanese currency. The yen traded at106.96 after seeing an earlier high of 104.96.

• Global economic growth is expected to slow down in 2019, according to UBS, as tighter monetary policy, weaker earnings growth and political challenges confront the world’s major economies. 

After seeing a growth of 3.8 percent in 2018, UBS said in its outlook for the year ahead that it expected global economic growth to slow to 3.6 percent in2019.

• “Our outlook is that U.S. growth will be constrained by ebbing fiscal stimulus and higher interest rates,” economists at UBS said in a note Wednesday. China, meanwhile, is facing the twin pressures of import U.S. tariffs and economic rebalancing. 

“The decline in global growth will mean a weaker tailwind for global markets, which could begin to anticipate an end of the economic cycle as 2019progresses, ” the investment bank said.

• A meeting between U.S. congressional leaders and President Donald Trump on Wednesday yielded no sign of an agreement to end a partial government shutdown now in its 12th day as the president stuck to his demand for $5 billion in funding for a border wall. 

Congressional leaders are expected to return to the White House on Friday to resume talks, signaling the shutdown will likely stretch into the weekend.

• U.S. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said on Wednesday the Senate will not consider bills Democrats plan to vote on in the House on Thursday that would end the government shutdown but not include President Donald Trump’s demand for $5 billion for a border wall. 

“The Senate will not waste its time considering a Democratic bill which cannot pass this chamber and which the president will not sign,” McConnell said on the Senate floor.

• Patrick Shanahan was thrust into the spotlight during his debut as acting U.S. defense secretary on Wednesday, sitting next to President Donald Trump as he publicly disparaged Shanahan’s predecessor, lampooned the war in Afghanistan and called Syria a land of “sand” and “death.” 

The former deputy defense secretary officially took office during the New Year’s holiday on Tuesday, issuing a statement saying that he looked “forward to working with President Trump to carry out his vision.”

According to state-run Chinese media outlet the Daily news, new stimulus measures are being considered by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) in a bid to further boost consumption spending, though what those exact measures would be has not been revealed. 

Elsewhere, the China International Capital Corporation stated that the PBoC is proposing another RRR cut, equal to unlocking an addition 400 billion yuan, while the PBoC is also allegedly considering making adjustments to how some banks' reserve ratios are calculated.

• Apple Inc on Wednesday cut its sales forecast for its latest quarter, with Chief Executive Tim Cook blaming slowing iPhone sales in China, whose economy has been dragged down by uncertainty around U.S.-China trade relations. 

Cook told CNBC that Apple products have not been targeted by the Chinese government, though some consumers may have elected not to buy an iPhone or other Apple device because it is an American company.

• Oil prices were higher on the first trading day of 2019, bolstered by signs of tighter supplies from Saudi Arabia that offset record output in the United States and Russia and weak economic data. 

Crude futures jumped as much as 5 percent earlier in the session, but gave up some of those gains in afternoon trading.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended Wednesday’s session at a two-week high, up $1.13, or 2.5 percent, to $46.54. Brent crude rose $1.13, or 2.1percent, to $54.93 a barrel at 2:28 p.m. ET, after trading as low as $52.51 earlier.

• Traders pointed to signs that Saudi Arabia is beginning to make good on vows to cut output after a swift fourth-quarter collapse in oil prices. Saudi exports in December fell by about half a million barrels per day to stand at 7.253 million bpd, according to tanker-tracking data from Bloomberg.

• J.P. Morgan said in November that Brent crude prices will average $73 a barrel in 2019, down from an earlier prediction of $83.50, in part due to North American supply ramping up in the second of the year. 


Reference: CNBC

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