• MTS Economic News_20190110

    10 Jan 2019 | Economic News

·         The dollar sank on Wednesday to its lowest since October, with gains led by the euro and sterling, as risk appetite improved on optimism over U.S.-China trade negotiations, prompting investors to reduce their safe-haven bets.


After initially slipping following poor German and French economic data, the euro recovered to post its highest in about three months.


News that China and the United States had extended trade talks in Beijing for an unscheduled third day boosted oil prices and broader sentiment. Expectations of more easing in China helped the mood as well, with Asian and European shares rallying.


In mid-morning trading, the dollar index fell 0.75 percent to 95.18, after sliding to a three-month trough.


The euro rose 0.90 percent to $1.1543, while sterling gained 0.27 percent versus the dollar to $1.2751.


Against the yen, the dollar was down 0.63 percent at 108.05.

·         “The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes today, and Jay Powell’s speech tomorrow, will give us an update of Fed thinking and of how much the other FOMC members are in agreement with the Chairman. If the message is still one of willingness to pause, and sensitivity to markets, the dollar won’t get any help,” said Kit Juckes, Societe Generale’s currency strategist.

Minutes released Wednesday from the Federal Open Market Committee gathering in December showed the rate hike came with reluctance from a few members who thought the lack of inflationary pressures argued against another increase.

The officials agreed that "some further gradual increases" in the benchmark funds rate would be appropriate. What that would translate to in practical terms, though, became less clear for a central bank that only a few months earlier was pointing to four hikes in 2019.

·         U.S. officials used three days of trade talks in Beijing to demand more details on China’s pledge to make big purchases of American goods, as well as to push for ways to hold China to any commitments on changes to industrial policies.

Washington has presented Beijing with a long list of demands that would rewrite the terms of trade between the world’s two largest economies. They include changes to China’s policies on intellectual property protection, technology transfers, industrial subsidies and other non-tariff barriers to trade.


Some 40 days into the 90-day truce, there were few concrete details on progress made so far. The meetings in Beijing were not at a ministerial level, so were not expected to produce a deal to end the trade war.


·         China’s commerce ministry said on Thursday trade talks with the United States this week were extensive and detailed, and established a foundation for the resolution of each others’ concerns.

Both parties agreed to continue to maintain close contact, the ministry said in a brief statement on its website.

·         U.S. President Donald Trump stormed out of talks with Democratic congressional leaders on Wednesday over funding for a border wall with Mexico and reopening the government, complaining the meeting in the White House was “a total waste of time.”

On the 19th day of a partial government shutdown caused by the dispute over the wall, a short meeting that included Trump, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi ended in acrimony with no sign of a resolution.

·         The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday passed legislation to end a partial shutdown of the Treasury Department and some other agencies, but without any money for President Donald Trump’s border wall.

By a vote of 240-188 along mostly partisan lines, the House passed the bill and sent it to the Republican-controlled Senate as part of Democrats’ latest strategy to end partial government shutdowns at many federal agencies that began on Dec. 22. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has not indicated a willingness to bring the bill up for a vote.

·         Lawyers for U.S. President Donald Trump have told special counsel Robert Mueller that he will not answer any more questions in the probe of Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election, Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani told Reuters on Wednesday.

Trump submitted written answers to questions from Mueller in late November. In an interview with Reuters, Giuliani said Mueller raised the possibility of follow-up questions but that the president’s outside legal team told the special counsel before Christmas that Trump would not respond.

·         British Prime Minister Theresa May suffered an early defeat to her Brexit plans on Wednesday when parliament demanded the government come up with a plan-B within days if she loses a vote on her deal to leave the European Union.

With less than three months before Britain is due to quit the EU, parliament began a five-day battle over May’s Brexit plan with a show of force - undermining her preferred timetable if lawmakers vote down her blueprint next Tuesday.


May has so far refused to retreat from her unpopular deal, which envisages close trading ties with the EU, but without any say on policy as Britain has now, after leaving in March. Instead, she has pressed ahead with a vote she looks set to lose after failing to win over her nominal Northern Irish allies.

 

Britain’s main opposition Labour Party will demand a general election if Prime Minister Theresa May loses a vote in parliament over her Brexit plans next week, its leader Jeremy Corbyn will say on Thursday.

·         Oil prices ripped higher on Wednesday, rebounding from a pullback on bearish U.S. stockpile data after Saudi Arabia reassured the market that its oil production and exports are falling sharply.

The oil market also drew support from talks between the United States and China aimed at preventing an all-out trade war. The market fears the dispute between the world’s two biggest economies could slow global growth and weigh on fuel demand.


U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude surged 5 percent to a nearly one-month high at $52.58 in late morning trade. The contract ended Wednesday’s session up $2.58, or 5.2 percent, to $52.36.


International benchmark Brent crude was up $2.55, or 4.3 percent, at $61.27 around 2:25 p.m. ET, after earlier rising as high as$61.58.

 

Reference: CNBC, Reuters

 

 

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