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·       The Monthly Pivot Range is strong resistance on the upside for the longer term and has kept the lid on a rally for the last month.

Go short if the price trades through 109.220 and place a stop loss at 110.120. The profit target of 106.340 makes for a good risk reward ratio trade in high probability conditions.

·       The Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion cut tax package appeared to have no major impact on businesses’ capital investment or hiring plans, according to a survey released a year after the biggest overhaul of the U.S. tax code in more than 30 years.

The National Association of Business Economics’ (NABE) quarterly business conditions poll published on Monday found that while some companies reported accelerating investments because of lower corporate taxes, 84 percent of respondents said they had not changed plans. That compares to 81 percent in the previous survey published in October.

·       The White House had predicted that the massive fiscal stimulus package, marked by the reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent, would boost business spending and job growth. The tax cuts came into effect in January 2018.

“A large majority of respondents, 84 percent, indicate that one year after its passage, the corporate tax reform has not caused their firms to change hiring or investment plans,” said NABE President Kevin Swift.

·       The lower tax rates, however, had an impact in the goods producing sector, with 50 percent of respondents from that sector reporting increased investments at their companies, and 20 percent saying they redirected hiring and investments to the United States from abroad.

·       The NABE survey also suggested a further slowdown in business spending after moderating sharply in the third quarter of 2018. The survey’s measure of capital spending fell in January to its lowest level since July 2017. Expectations for capital spending for the next three months also weakened.

“Fewer firms increased capital spending compared to the October survey responses, but the cutback appeared to be concentrated more in structures than in information and communication technology investments,” said Swift, who is also chief economist at the American Chemistry Council.

According to the survey, employment growth improved modestly in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter. Just over a third of respondents reported rising employment at their firms over the past three months, up from 31 percent in the October survey. The survey’s forward-looking measure of employment slipped to 25 in January from 29 in October.

·       Bank of Japan policymakers disagreed over the appropriate level of bond yields, minutes from the central bank’s meeting last month showed in a sign of the strain on the BOJ’s monetary framework as the global economy weakens.

One member said long-term yields should be allowed to temporarily turn negative, according to minutes of the central bank’s Dec. 19-20 meeting released on Monday. The minutes do not identify the board members by name.

Another member agreed, saying yields have fallen due to worries about the U.S.-Sino trade war and that conducting market operations to raise yields would tighten monetary policy.

Yet another member said the BOJ should strengthen policy to reach its 2 percent inflation target.

·       Earnings at China’s industrial firms shrank for a second straight month in December, putting pressure on policymakers to support industries hurt by slowing prices and weak factory activity amid a protracted U.S.-Sino trade war.

Industrial profits in December fell 1.9 percent from a year earlier to 680.8 billion yuan ($100.9 billion), weighed down by weak factory-gate prices and soft demand, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Monday. This is on top of a decline of 1.8 percent in November - the first contraction in profits in nearly three years.

“As far as the future trend is concerned, it is quite obvious that it will continue to decline because the (producer price index) has apparently turned negative last month, and when PPI has turned negative, the profits of industrial enterprises will go down,” said Tang Jianwei, senior economist at Bank of Communications in Shanghai, adding that the structure of corporate profitability will also start to change. 

“Profits at mid- and downstream sectors may stabilize while the upstream sector will face immense pressure.”

·       The Saudi Arabian government will spend 100 billion riyals ($27 billion) in 2019 and 2020 as part of its industrial development program, Aabed Abdullah al-Saadoun, deputy minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources said on Monday

·       Taiwan’s economic growth probably slowed in the fourth quarter as the island’s technology exports were hit by softening global demand and fallout from the U.S.-China trade war.

·       Oil prices fell 1 percent on Monday after U.S. companies added rigs for the first time this year, a signal that crude output may rise further, and as China, the world’s second-largest oil user, reported additional signs of an economic slowdown.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $60.74 a barrel at 0804 GMT, down 90 cents, or 1.46 percent.

U.S. crude oil futures were at $52.84 per barrel, down 85 cents, or 1.58 percent, from their last settlement.

High U.S. crude oil production, which rose to a record 11.9 million barrels per day (bpd) late last year, has been weighing on oil markets, traders said.

In a sign output could rise further, U.S. energy firms last week raised the number of rigs looking for new oil for the first time in 2019 to 862, an addition of 10 rigs, Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its weekly report on Friday.