• MTS Economic News_20190201

    1 Feb 2019 | Economic News


·       The Australian dollar fell versus the greenback on Friday after a private survey showed factory activity in China shrank by the most in almost three years in January.


The Australian dollar, often considered a barometer for global risk appetite, fell 0.4 percent to $0.7246. The kiwi was at $0.6907, down 0.2 percent versus the greenback.

·       China's gloomy factory readings have brought global growth worries to the fore again, which is likely to benefit safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen.

"Dollar/yen is expected to remain weak given a dovish Federal Reserve but we can expect a bigger move down if there is a return of risk-off sentiment," said Sim Moh Siong, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore.

·       The yen was steady at 108.8 against the dollar after hitting a two-week high in the previous session.

However, broader risk sentiment still remained fairly strong after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping soon to try and seal a comprehensive trade deal as the top U.S. negotiator reported "substantial progress" in two days of high-level talks.

·       The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers, was steady at 95.60. The index is set to end the week in the red, after losing 0.6 percent of its value last week.

The dollar is widely expected to weaken this year as the Federal Reserve turns more cautious about further rate increases.

 ·       The euro was flat at $1.1446 after having fallen 0.3 percent in the last session. The single currency has not managed to gain despite broader dollar weakness as growth and inflation in the euro zone remain weaker than expected.

·       Sterling, which is grappling with troubles of its own on uncertainty over a deal to avoid a chaotic British exit from the European Union, was flat at $1.3109. Analysts expect the British pound to remain volatile in the coming weeks.

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·       EUR/USD Price Outlook: Euro Fails at 1.15 - Levels to Know for NFP

Euro is threatening a four-day winning streak against the US Dollar with the recent price rally failing at the 1.15-handle today in New York. The immediate threat is lower near-term, but the broader outlook remains constructive and we’re looking for a pullback to offer more favorable opportunities. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD charts.

A closer look at price action show EUR/USD trading within the confines of an ascending channel formation extending off the monthly lows with price Euro turning just pips from slope resistance today. Initial support now rests back at monthly / yearly open at 1.1449/50 backed closely by the lower parallel – a break there would suggest a larger correction is underway with such a scenario exposing the weekly open at the 1.14-handle (near-term bullish invalidation). Resistance remains at 1.15 with a breach above the weekly range-highs targeting the highlighted resistance confluence at 1.1542.

·       U.S. job growth likely slowed in January after December’s weather-related outsized surge, but the pace of hiring probably remains fast enough to support the economy amid a darkening outlook resulting from government policy and cooling global economies.

The Labor Department will publish its closely watched monthly employment report on Friday, two days after the Federal Reserve signaled its three-year interest rate hike campaign might be ending because of rising headwinds to the economy.

It also comes at the end of the first week back at work for hundreds of thousands of federal workers furloughed during the recent partial government shutdown. The 35-day shutdown, which ended a week ago, may complicate the report but is not expected to have a lasting effect on U.S. employment or the economy.

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Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 165,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey of economists, after shooting up 312,000 in December - the most in 10 months. The anticipated job gains would be more than the roughly 100,000 per month needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

“The economy is in good shape, for the most part,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. “What is failing is government policy.”

·       In addition to the impact of the shutdown, the report may be muddied by annual revisions to payrolls, hourly earnings and the work week, as well as the incorporation of new population estimates. The shift in population controls means figures on the labor force or number of employed or unemployed would not be directly comparable to December.

·       While the unemployment rate is forecast steady at 3.9 percent in January, there is a risk that the shutdown could have pushed it up. According to the BLS, the furloughed workers would be considered unemployed on “temporary layoff.” Some economists expect the jobless rate to temporarily rise to as high as 4.1 percent in January, which would be the highest in nearly a year.

·       A U.S. trade delegation will visit China in mid-February for a new round of talks, President Donald Trump told Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the official Xinhua news agency said on Friday.

The delegation is to be led by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, it added.

Liu, who met Trump in Washington during a visit for trade talks, told him that Chinese President Xi Jinping was willing to stay in close touch with him, Xinhua said.

China’s trade delegation said the latest round of talks with the United States made “important progress” for the current stage, China’s official Xinhua news agency reported on Friday.

·       Oil prices were steady on Friday, torn between hopes the United States and China could soon settle their trade disputes and new data raising fresh concerns over China’s economic slowdown.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $60.93 per barrel at 07129 cents above their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $53.80 per barrel, virtually unchanged from their last settlement.

·       Oil prices were supported as U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping soon to try to seal a comprehensive trade deal.

But crude markets were weighed down by a survey on Friday that showed China’s factory activity shrank by the most in almost three years in January amid slumping orders, reinforcing fears a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy is deepening.

Despite these concerns, traders said oil markets overall are being supported by supply cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which according to a Reuters poll pumped 30.98million barrels per day (bpd) in January, down 890,000 bpd from December.



Reference: Reuters, CNBC, Daily FX

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