• MTS Economic News_20190208

    8 Feb 2019 | Economic News


·         
The U.S. dollar fell against the yen on Thursday after CNBC reported U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are unlikely to meet before March 2, the deadline the countries set for reaching a trade deal.


The dollar was last down 0.15 percent at 109.79 yen.


The dollar also edged higher against the euro on Thursday after the European Commission slashed its economic growth forecasts for the euro zone due to the expected impact of trade tensions and other challenges for the bloc's largest countries.


In a quarterly economic forecast, the EU executive revised down its estimates for inflation in the 19-country currency bloc next year and also cut euro zone growth estimates for this year and next.


The euro was 0.08 percent lower against the greenback, on pace for its fourth session of losses.


 It dropped earlier in the session after German industrial output unexpectedly fell in December.


The dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus the euro, yen, British pound and three other currencies, was up 0.1 percent at96.49, on pace for its sixth session of gains.

·         President Donald Trump on Thursday said he would not meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the March 2 deadline to reach a Chinese-U.S. trade deal.

Trump's remarks came hours after CNBC reported, citing a senior administration official, that it was "highly unlikely" for the meeting to happen in the coming weeks.


While Trump and Xi are still expected to meet eventually, there's too much work to do to flesh out a deal with China and prepare Trump for a high-stakes meeting with North Korea's Kim Jong Un. Trump's summit with Kim is set for Feb. 27-28.


Trump and Xi may still meet "shortly thereafter" March 2, said the official, who requested anonymity, citing a lack of authorization to speak publicly about the talks.

·         The Federal Reserve is likely to miss its 2 percent inflation target for an eighth straight year in 2019, a further sign the U.S. central bank’s recent round of rate increases should end, James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, said on Thursday.

Bullard said the pricing of inflation-protected securities showed that investors late last year began lowering their expectations about inflation, and now see the Fed missing its 2 percent target not just this year but for years to come.


Bullard does not feel interest rates should rise above the current range of between 2.25 and 2.5 percent.

 

·         The U.S. Senate Banking Committee on Thursday said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify on the state of the economy on Tuesday, Feb. 26, presenting the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress.

·         The ball is in Washington's court to speed up North Korea's denuclearization, according to political analysts.

When U.S. President Donald Trump meets Kim Jong Un in Vietnam later this month, he could offer to roll back some U.S. sanctions and reduce the size of the U.S. military presence in South Korea, analysts at Eurasia Group suggested.


Trump can also offer Pyongyang talks with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the World Trade Organization, said Robert A. Manning of the Atlantic Council.


·         The BOE sharply downgraded its 2019 economic outlook to 1.2 percent on Thursday. As recently as November, the Bank had projected growth of 1.7 percent this year.

That revision marks the biggest cut of the its growth forecasts since the period immediately after the Brexit referendum in 2016. It also means policymakers at the central bank now expect Britain to grow at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis.


For 2020, overall economic growth is expected to slow to 1.5 percent, from 1.7 percent.


Further to this, BOE Governor Mark Carney said falling oil prices would likely push inflation below its target of percent in the near-term, before bouncing back and settling "a little above" target in a year's time.

 

·         India's central bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates on Thursday in a move that will likely be welcomed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi who wants to boost lending and economic growth as his government gears up for parliamentary elections later this year.


The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee cut the repo rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 6.25 percent. In a widely anticipated move, it also shifted its policy stance from "calibrated tightening" to "neutral," suggesting more cuts could be on the horizon.


·         Oil prices tumbled on Thursday as the market confronted concerns that global demand growth would lag in the coming year.

A rebound from late December lows seemed to stall amid worries that a trade war between the U.S. and China would continue, weighing on demand. The market also contended with the possibility that oil producers would not adhere strictly to cuts agreed to last year.


Crude futures fell with the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average droppedmore than 250 points after a senor administration official told CNBC a meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping is highly unlikely to take place before a critical March deadline to avoid higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.


U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled $1.37 lower at $52.64 a barrel for a or 2.5 percent loss. International Brent crude oil futures fell $1.05 a barrel, or 1.7 percent, to $61.64 around 2:30 p.m. ET.

Reference: CNBC, ReutersAljazeera

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