• MTS Economic News_201902018

    18 Feb 2019 | Economic News


·         The dollar fell versus a basket of its peers on Monday as rising expectations of a U.S.-Sino trade deal led investors to shift away from the safety of the greenback into riskier assets.

Both the United States and China reported progress in five days of negotiations in Beijing last week, although the White House said much work remains to be done to force changes in Chinese trade behavior.

Negotiations will continue in Washington as investors hope for an end to the trade war between the world's two largest economies.

"Trade is the big focus for the markets...with talks shifting from Beijing to Washington, we could get more news flow," said Michael McCarthy, chief markets strategist at CMC Markets.

"I expect the euro to remain under pressure this week while dollar/yen could also fall if we see risk-aversion based on negative trade news flow."

In Asia, the yen was steady versus the greenback at 110.53.

The escalating trade dispute between the world's largest economies have kept markets highly volatile since last year.

The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers, was down by 0.16 percent at 96.74.

The index has gained 1.2 percent so far this month despite weaker-than-expected U.S. data as well as a more cautious Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to keep rates steady this year due to a slowdown in growth and muted inflation.

The dollar index has gained mainly because of the euro, which has around 58 percent weightage in the index.

The single currency was up 0.2 percent at $1.1317 in early Asian trade, after two straight weeks of losses.

Despite Monday's gains, traders are betting on a weaker euro in the coming months as they expect the European Central Bank to keep its monetary policy accommodative due to low growth in the common area, tepid inflation and political uncertainties.

The ECB will next meet on March and policymakers are widely expected to slash growth and inflation projections as the euro zone is suffering its biggest slowdown in half a decade.

·         China's automobile sales in January fell 15.8 percent from a year earlier, the country's top auto industry association said on Monday, marking the seventh straight month of declining sales in the world's largest auto market.

China's Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said in an emailed statement to Reuters that sales dropped to 2.37 million vehicles last month. This follows a 13 percent drop in December and a 14 percent fall in November.

China has been grappling with slowing economic growth as well as the fallout of trade frictions with the United States, forces which contributed to its auto market contracting for the first time in more than two decades last year.

·         Global growth is expected to slow in the coming months, but Asian economies could hold up reasonably well, thanks to several "mitigating factors," according to the chief executive of Southeast Asia's largest bank.

"The overall macro-economy will be a tad bit slower, but I do think that there are some mitigating factors: Monetary policies are getting looser, I think there are some fiscal stimulus coming down the pipe," Piyush Gupta, CEO of Singapore's DBS Group Holdings, told CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Monday.

Gupta noted that Asia is still projected to grow at 5.5 percent to 6 percent this year despite the overall softer global environment. Several central banks in Asia — including those in China, India and Australia — have lowered interest rates or indicated the intention to do so in the coming months in an attempt to shore up economic growth, the CEO added.

In addition, the U.S. Federal Reserve holding back from raising interest rates further is good news for Asia, said Steve Cochrane, chief Asia Pacific economist at Moody's Analytics.

"It means that there's a little less pressure on foreign exchange," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday.

·         While Chinese authorities have kept a lid on what they consider potentially destabilizing capital outflows, they largely welcome inflows, which have increased following various arrangements that allow foreign investors to buy domestic stocks and bonds through Hong Kong.

The possibility of reduced trade tensions between the United States and China could also improve investor sentiment as uncertainties surrounding Chinese investments ease, Ronald Wan, non-executive chairman at Partners Financial Holdings in Hong Kong, told CNBC on Thursday.

People will recognize that the trade war will be an "ongoing problem," Wan said, but he added that he did not expect anything "drastic" to happen.

·         Oil prices on Monday hit their highest levels since November last year, lifted by OPEC-led supply cuts, U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and hopes that the Sino-U.S. trade dispute may soon end.

International Brent crude futures were at $66.66 per barrel at 0746 GMT, up 41 cents, or 0.6 percent, from their last close. Brent earlier climbed to its highest since November 2018 at $66.78 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $56.07 per barrel, up 48 cents, or 0.9 percent, from their close. WTI prices also rose to their highest since November, at $56.13 per barrel, earlier on Monday.

Earlier in the trading day, news of a fall in Chinese car sales in January had raised concerns about how fuel demand in the world’s second-largest oil user might fare.

China’s vehicle sales last month fell by 15.8 percent versus the same month in 2018, an industry association said on Monday. This continued the 2018 trend, in which China recorded the first annual drop in vehicle sales on record.

So-called new energy vehicle sales in January, which include electric vehicles, registered a 140 percent increase, underlining expectations that oil demand from cars may peak in China in the coming years.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC

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