• MTS Economic News_20190220

    20 Feb 2019 | Economic News

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·         The dollar on Tuesday fell against a basket of other currencies as traders scaled back their safe-haven greenback holdings on optimism that a fresh round of talks between China and the United States would help resolve their trade conflict.


The dollar index hit a near two-month peak on Friday after last week's set of negotiations in Beijing failed to result in a deal, although officials from both sides said the talks had produced progress on contentious issues.


The ICE index, which tracks the dollar against six other major currencies, was down 0.41 percent at 96.50.


On Friday, it hit 97.368, which was the highest since Dec. 17. U.S. financial markets were closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.


Among other major currencies, the Swedish crown tumbled after weak inflation data spurred sales of the currency and a paring of bets that interest rates would rise this year.


The euro was up 0.32 percent at $1.1344, holding above a three-month low of $1.1234 set last week.


 ·         "We are hoping to hear more positive news on trade," said Dean Popplewell, chief currency strategist at Oanda in Toronto. "The dollar should come under pressure as it loses some safe-haven appeal."

·         The Fed may need to raise interest rates this year but could still end a process of trimming its massive bond portfolio before the end of 2019, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday.

·         New York Fed President John Williams on Tuesday said he was comfortable with the level U.S. interest rates are at now and that he sees no need to raise them again unless economic growth or inflation shifts to an unexpectedly higher gear.

In an interview with Reuters, Williams estimated the Federal Reserve would continue trimming its bond portfolio well into next year. He also said he felt rates had reached his current view of a lower “neutral” level, with growth and unemployment leveling off and inflation, if anything, a bit weaker than hoped.

·         The United States is reportedly asking China to address the value of the its currency as part of the trade deal.

The move would be aimed at mediating any effort by the Chinese to devalue the yuan to counter American tariffs, people familiar with the situation told Bloomberg News. The Trump administration has insisted that moves to devalue the yuan to buoy Chinese exports would be countered with additional or more severe American tariffs, sources told Bloomberg News.

·         U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he is looking forward to a good meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Feb. 27 and 28 in Vietnam and wants Pyongyang to ultimately denuclearize but is in no particular hurry.

·         Japan’s exports fell 8.4 percent in January from a year earlier, Ministry of Finance (MOF) data showed on Wednesday, in a sign of slowing external demand.

·         Oil steadied on Tuesday after hitting 2019 highs as concerns about global crude oil demand, coupled with uncertainty over the latest round of U.S.-China trade talks, countered investor optimism around tightening supplies.

Brent crude slipped 14 cents to $66.36 a barrel, after earlier hitting $66.65, close to its 2019 high of $66.83 reached on Monday. U.S. crude settled up 50 cents at $56.09 a barrel, maintaining its high for the year.


·         A fresh round of talks aimed at resolving the trade dispute between the United States and China were scheduled to start on Tuesday in Washington, with higher-level discussions planned for later in the week.

Traders said they were cautious about taking large new positions before the outcome of the talks.

·         In a warning sign about the economic outlook, Europe's biggest bank HSBC warned it may delay some investments this year as it missed 2018 profit forecasts due to slowing growth in China and Britain.


Reference: CNBC, Reuters, Bloomberg

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