MTS Help Center

The Euro’s bounce from near the November low looks to have run its course with momentum having stalled since Wednesday. Upward momentum fizzled out upon an attempt to cross over the lower parallel in place since November, with the 4-hr chart showing the makings of a corrective wedge.

The downward trend, resistance, and price action combine to suggest EURUSD is headed lower in the days ahead. If this is the case, first up will be the recent low at 11234, followed by the November low at 11216. At the rate things have been going lately, it could be a stretch that we see an extended slide too far beyond either of those levels without another bounce.

· Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the EUR/USD pair spent much of last week side lined in its range and they are looking for it to remain under pinned by the 1.1216 November low but it is currently stalled at the 20 day ma at 1.1356.

“Our attention remains on the 1.1513 200 day ma. It is again expected to creep higher this week. Above the 200 day ma will re-target the 1.1623 mid-October high and slightly longer term we look for gains to 1.1685, the 55 week ma.”

· The U.S. and China appear to be close to ending a tariff fight that hurt financial markets and dented economic activity worldwide, but that's not going to stop the slowdown already seen in the global economy, experts said on Monday.

"I think we need to take a little bit of a step back and take a look at the economic cycle," Paul Kitney, chief equity strategist at Daiwa Capital Markets, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday. "The shape of the cycle is one where we see moderation in growth in the United States this year ... we see risks of a recession in the United States growing possibly as early as the middle of 2020."

"The downturn is not going away" regardless of how positively current risks — including the U.S.-China trade war and the U.K.'s impending exit from the European Union — are resolved, Kitney said.

· Analysts say surging bank loans and overall credit expansion to monthly records in China mean that official efforts to stimulate the economy are kicking in, a potential sign that slowing growth could bottom out by the first half of the year.

Economists and investors expect more stimulus but some say officials will need to make sure it doesn't get out of hand.

Jian Chang, chief economist for China at Barclays, said that credit has expanded "quite significantly" and she expects economic growth to pick up in the second-quarter, after bottoming out in the current first quarter.

· U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he wants to make a trade deal with Beijing that will be great for both the United States and China and that there could be “very big news over the next week or two” if all goes well in negotiations.

Trump, speaking to U.S. governors at the White House just two hours after saying he would delay a scheduled Friday deadline to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, said: “China has been terrific. We want to make a deal that’s great for both countries and that’s really what we’re going to be doing.”

· Trump's delay of higher tariffs "didn't come as a total surprise," said Shinichiro Kadota, senior forex and rates strategist at Barclays in Tokyo. "So I expect the market reaction should be somewhat limited and that the focus would shift back to global economic fundamentals."

In his latest round of tweets, the president said that progress had been made on a host of divisive areas including intellectual property protection, technology transfers, agriculture, services and currency.

Trump did not set a new deadline for the talks to conclude, but he told U.S. state governors gathered at the White House that there could be "very big news over the next week or two" if all went well in the negotiations.

China's official Xinhua news agency said in a commentary that the goal of an agreement was getting "closer and closer", but also warned that negotiations would get more difficult as they approached the final stages.

· U.S. President Donald Trump will arrive in Vietnam on Tuesday evening, Vietnam’s foreign ministry said on Monday, ahead of his second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Trump’s summit with Kim is due to take place on Wednesday and Thursday but no details of their talks have been released.

· British lawmakers were meant to be given a vote this week on British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal but May has delayed it and it will now take place just 17 days before the U.K. is meant to leave the European Union

Still, May said on Sunday that her government is making progress in talks with the EU and that a deal is still "within our grasp."

She said that members of parliament (MPs) will have a fresh "meaningful vote" on the Brexit deal on March 12, just over two weeks before the March 29 departure date.

Opposition Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn was among those who criticized the move to delay a parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal, saying May was "recklessly running down the clock" near to the departure date.

European officials showed their displeasure at May's decision not to put forward her Brexit deal to a vote in the parliament this week, as originally planned. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker last week complained of "Brexit fatigue."

Speculation is mounting that the U.K.'s departure will end up being delayed although keen Brexiteers in the British parliament would likely be angered at such a move.

British newspaper The Telegraph and the BBC have reported that May is considering a plan that would see the U.K.'s departure delayed for two months, however.

· Meanwhile, political uncertainty over Brexit remains. Prime Minister Theresa May has delayed returning to parliament for another key vote on her Brexit deal. MPs are now expected to have another meaningful vote by March 12. The U.K.'s departure from the European Union is currently scheduled for March 29.

Elsewhere, European leaders travelled to Egypt to participate in the first summit with Arab League countries. The focus of the meeting is on migration.

· Oil prices dipped on Monday, dragged down by plentiful supply as U.S. exports soar and compete with traditional producers from the Middle East in key markets such as Asia.

But markets were supported by optimism that Washington and Beijing would soon resolve a series of trade disputes that have dented global economic growth, analysts said.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $67 a barrel at 0712 GMT, down 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. They ended Friday little changed after touching their highest since Nov. 16 at $67.73 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $57.20 per barrel, down 6 cents, or 0.1 percent, from their last settlement. WTI futures climbed 0.5 percent on Friday, having marked their highest since Nov. 16 at $57.81 a barrel.

Reference: Reuters, CNBC, FX Street, Daily FX