• MTS Economic News_20190308

    11 Mar 2019 | Economic News

· Job growth came to a near halt in February after a blistering start to the year, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by just 20,000 even as the unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, the Labor Department reported Friday.


It was the worst month for job creation since September 2017, when two major hurricanes hit the employment market, offset somewhat by a solid increase in wages.


· The dollar fell against most major currencies on Friday as data showed U.S. employers hired far fewer workers than forecast in February, although the jobless rate fell and wages grew more than expected.

The Swedish crown fell to a 16-year low, as Riksbank joined its central bank counterparts in Europe and Canada in adopting a cautious outlook.


The greenback reversed some of its biggest one-day gains in nearly seven months on Thursday as the European Central Bank and other overseas central banks hinted they might pump more stimulus, either by buying more assets or lowering interest rates to help their struggling economies.


At 2:20 p.m. EST, an index that tracks the dollar against a basket of six currencies was down 0.34 percent at 97.34. It touched 97.710 on Thursday, the highest since Dec. 14.


· On the week, the dollar index was on track to gain 0.85 percent. Much of the greenback's weekly rise stemmed from a dramatic sell-off in the euro on Thursday when the ECB offered a fresh round of cheap loans to banks and pushed back any plan to raise rates into 2020.

The common currency rose 0.43 percent to $1.124, rebounding from a 20-month low of $1.11765 reached on Thursday. Friday's rise reduced the euro's weekly loss against the dollar to 1.17 percent, which would be its steepest one-week decline since late September.



· U.S. government debt yields gyrated on Friday after the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added far fewer jobs than expected, but wages moved higher in the month of February.


At 4:09 p.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was slightly higher at around 2.628 percent. The benchmark rate hit a session low of 2.607 percent following the report's release. Yields move inversely to prices.


· Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in an interview aired Sunday that he does not think the can be fired by President Donald Trump.

While continuing to avoid direct comment on the president's withering criticism of central bank interest rate policy, Powell told "60 Minutes" that Trump can't remove him from office.


"The law is clear that I have a four-year term, and I fully intend to serve it," Powell told the CBS news magazine show. Asked directly if he thought Trump could fire him, he said, "no."


· President Donald Trump's budget will project that the economy continues to grow at a 3 percent rate or higher over the next five years, despite a more pessimistic consensus from outside forecasters.

The White House will release the president's budget Monday, along with its assumptions about how the economy will evolve under the administration's proposed policies. The forecasts will show GDP reaching 3.2 percent this year compared to last year and 3.1 percent in 2020, according to a copy of the projections obtained by CNBC. Growth will then level off at 3 percent through 2024, according to the projections.


Those estimates are markedly higher than independent outside projections.


The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office forecast growth this year at 2.7 percent, followed by a significant dropoff next year to 1.9 percent as the boost from the new tax law peters out. After that, the CBO predicts growth will hover between 1.6 and 1.8 percent through 2029. The Federal Reserve predicts long-run growth at about 2 percent.



· Brexit could be reversed if lawmakers reject the government's exit deal, British foreign minister Jeremy Hunt said on Sunday after two major eurosceptic factions in parliament warned that Prime Minister Theresa May was facing a heavy defeat.

Just 19 days before the United Kingdom is due to leave the EU on March 29, May is scrambling - so far unsuccessfully - to secure last-minute changes to an EU exit treaty before parliament votes on Tuesday on whether to approve the deal.

If she fails, lawmakers are expected to force May to seek a delay to Brexit which some say could see the 2016 decision to leave the bloc reversed. Others argue that, without a delay, Britain faces an economic shock if it leaves without a deal.

· Oil prices fell on Friday, but managed to retrace losses after plunging on data that showed recent U.S. job gains grinding to a halt in February.

Crude futures were also under pressure after data showed a slump in Chinese imports and exports last month and the European Central Bank slashed its outlook for economic growth on the continent.



U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 66 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $56 around 2:30 p.m. ET. WTI earlier fell more than 3 percent to a three-week low at $54.52. The contract is on pace to rise half a percent this week.



Brent crude futures were down 54 cents, or nearly 1 percent, to $65.76 a barrel, bouncing from a three-week low at $64.02. The international benchmark for oil prices was on pace for a roughly 1 percent gain on the week.



· Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday it would be too early to change OPEC+ output policy at the group’s meeting in April and that China and the U.S. would lead healthy global demand for oil this year.

“We will see what happens by April, if there is any unforeseen disruption somewhere else, but barring this I think we will just be kicking the can forward,” Falih said.



“We will see where the market is by June and adjust appropriately,” Falih said after a meeting with Indian oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan in New Delhi.



Reference: CNBC


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