· Weekly Technical Forecast
Based on last week’s upside momentum and the close at 2829.75, the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 2909.25.
Bullish Scenario
Taking out 2909.25 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the next downtrending Gann angle at 2857.25. Overcoming this angle could drive the index into the next downtrending Gann angle at 2935.25. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 2961.25 main top and contract high.
Bearish Scenario
The inability to overcome the downtrending Gann angle at 2857.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into the next downtrending Gann angle at 2753.25.
If 2753.25 fails as support then look for further weakness with the next potential targets a minor bottom at 2726.50, the major Fibonacci level at 2716.00 and the steep uptrending Gann angle at 2703.25.
· European stocks opened slightly higher on Monday morning, amid mounting speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve could sound decidedly dovish at its policy meeting later this week.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 was up around 0.1 percent shortly after the opening bell, with most sectors and major bourses in positive territory.
Back in Europe, market focus is largely attuned to the latest Brexit developments.
British Prime Minister Theresa May is scrambling to secure support for her Brexit deal once again, with only three days left to win approval from U.K. lawmakers ahead of a summit of the bloc's leaders on Thursday.
· Asian shares pulled ahead on Monday while bonds were in demand globally on mounting speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will sound decidedly dovish at its policy meeting this week.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 advanced 0.59 percent, and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.6 percent.
“Long-term bond yields remain noticeably lower across a wide range of countries,” said Alan Oster, group chief economist at National Australia Bank.
“Markets are pricing in little or no chance of a rate hike by the major central banks this year, outside of the Bank of England. The Fed is indicating that it will be patient and we don’t expect any rate hikes this year.”
· Japan’s Nikkei rose on Monday as chip-related stocks tracked strength in their U.S. peers, but weak February export data checked the market’s upside.
The Nikkei share average ended 0.6 percent higher to 21,584.50.
Defensive sectors have outperformed in March, with real estate up 5 percent, drugmakers advancing 2.7 percent and utility stocks adding 1.4 percent. The Nikkei has gained 0.9 percent since the start of the month.
“Investors will probably keep buying defensive names until we see a sign of resolution in the U.S.-China trade war,” said Yutaka Miura, a senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities.
· China’s major stock indexes closed near their 6-1/2-month highs on Monday, as sentiment was bolstered by high expectations of the U.S. Federal Reserve taking a dovish stance at its policy meeting this week and Beijing’s policy boost for growth.
At the close, the blue-chip CSI300 index settled 2.9 percent higher at 3,851.75 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index ended up 2.5 percent at 3,096.42 points.
There is much talk Fed policymakers will lower their interest rate forecasts, or “dot plots”, to show little or no further tightening this year.
The Chinese government has additional monetary policy measures that it can take to support economic growth this year, and will even cut “its own flesh” to help finance large-scale tax cuts, Premier Li Keqiang said on Friday.
Reference: Reuters, CNBC