The yen, a perceived safe-haven which attracts demand times of market turmoil and political tensions, was 0.15 percent higher at 109.79 to the dollar after brushing 109.70, its strongest since Feb. 8.
The Japanese currency rose 0.15 percent to 124.035 per euro and added 0.2 percent to 77.72 against the Australian dollar.
· The dollar index was little changed at 96.623 after scraping out a gain of 0.15 percent on Friday.
· The euro was nearly flat at $1.1296. The common currency has lost roughly 0.7 percent on Friday in response to the downbeat German manufacturing survey.
The pound was 0.1 percent lower at $1.3199.
· Euro Weekly Technical Outlook: EURUSD Rejected by 200-DMA Again
The 200-day moving average refuses to yield to any EURUSD uptick and for the third time this year sent the pair lower after being challenged. EURUSD now trades back below the 20- and 50-day moving averages as well and currently trades either side of the 1.1300 line, and area that prompted rebounds over the last 4-5 months. While this area has been broken before, it remains to be seen if EURUSD will move lower again, especially as Wednesday’s high broke a pattern of lower highs for the first time this year, taking one negative technical indicator off the table. A confirmation that the pair are losing downside momentum would be confirmed if the March 7 low at 1.1176 remains in place, sparking a bullish higher low. Horizontal support kicks-in at 1.1232 (February 15) before 1.1215 (November 12, 2018). Initial resistance between 1.1320and 1.1350.
· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday it was understandable for markets to be nervous when the yield curve flattened, though he was still confident about the U.S. economic growth outlook.
In what many see as a bad omen for the U.S. economy, yields on benchmark U.S. 10-year treasury notes fell further below three-month rates in Asia on Monday, an inversion that has in the past signaled the risk of economic recession.
On the monetary policy outlook, Evans said it was a good time for the U.S. central bank to pause and adopt a cautious stance, adding he did not expect any interest rate hikes until the second half of next year.
· Adam Button, managing director of ForexLive.com, said that he is also ignoring gold’s short-term price movement and instead of looking at the long-term picture.
He added that he is looking at the message the bond market is sending. Friday was a historic day for the U.S. bond market as it was the first time 3-month bill yields pushed higher than 10-year Treasuries yields. This is the first time the yield curve has inverted since 2007; an inverted yield curve has been a consistent recession indicator.
· British Prime Minister Theresa May held crisis talks with senior colleagues and hardline Brexiteers on Sunday trying to breathe life into her twice-defeated European divorce deal after reports her cabinet was plotting to topple her.
The United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union was already slipping from May’s weakened grasp as she struggled to increase support for her deal and parliament prepared to grab control of Brexit in the coming days.
Finance Minister Philip Hammond, too, said a change of prime minister would not break the impasse, though he acknowledged it may be impossible for parliament to back May’s plan.
That opens an array of possibilities including a much softer divorce than May had intended, a second plebiscite, a revocation of the Article 50divorce papers, or even an election.
· Oil prices slipped on Monday, with concerns of a sharp economic slowdown outweighing supply disruptions from OPEC's production cutbacks and from U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.
Brent crude oil futures were at $66.73 per barrel at 0752 GMT, down 30 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $58.69 per barrel, down 35 cents, or 0.6 percent, from their previous settlement.
Both crude oil price benchmarks have slumped by almost 3 percent since last week hitting their highest since November 2018.
· Crude Oil Price Forecast: Evening Star Prints as $60 Breakout Fails
This week saw crude prices rally through the FOMC rate decision and into Thursday trade, at which point sellers showed-up to push prices back-below the $60 level. The sell-off continued through a key Fibonacci level on the chart at 59.64. The three-day candle formation has built into an evening star pattern, which involves an initial day of strength running into a day of indecision; followed by a sell-off that takes-out at least half of the gains from day one.
This keeps the door open for a short-term move of weakness down to the confluent Fibonacci zone that runs from 57.25-57.50, in which exists38.2% retracements from both 2014-2016 and 2016-2018 major moves. This would be categorized as a pullback in the longer-term trend that’s held so far through 2019; and that theme can remain workable as long as prices trade above the March swing-low around $54.50.
Reference: Reuters, CNBC, BBC, Daily FX, Bloomberg