Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,319.86 per ounce as of 0426 GMT, after touching its highest since Feb. 28 at $1,324.33 in the previous session.
U.S. gold futures were down 0.2 percent at $1,319.80 an ounce.
· "Though concerns have gone up, we are not hundred percent sure there is going to be a recession as the yield curve inversion should be there for a whole quarter and not just for a day or two," said John Sharma, economist at the National Australian Bank.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below the yield for three-month bills on Friday for the first time since 2007, inverting the yield curve.
An inversion is widely seen as an indicator of an economic recession.
· However, Asian shares bounced back on Tuesday as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged higher, but the outlook remained murky as investors weighed the odds of whether the U.S. economy is in danger of slipping into recession.
"Risk of a U.S economic slowdown has gone up and interest rates are on hold, which is giving some stimulus to gold, but it's not enough to sky rocket gold prices. Investors need more confirmation of further weakness in the economy," Sharma said.
· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday it was understandable for markets to be nervous when the yield curve flattened, though he was still confident about the U.S. economic growth outlook.
U.S. Federal Reserve last week abandoned projections for any interest rate hikes this year.
Gold has gained about 3 percent so far this year, mainly on the back of a dovish Fed and concerns about a global economic slowdown.
· Market participants are also keeping a close watch on the latest round of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, scheduled to start on Thursday in Beijing, and the next Brexit vote.
British lawmakers will now vote on a range of Brexit options on Wednesday, giving parliament a chance to indicate whether it can agree on a deal with closer ties to Brussels.
Any positive developments from either of the geo-political issues will weigh on gold prices as investors appetite for riskier assets will rise, denting bullion's safe-haven appeal.
· GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices are testing resistance at 1326.30, with a break higher confirmed on a daily closing basis opening the door to revisiting the February swing high at 1346.75. Overall positioning still hints at the outlines of a choppy Head and Shoulders top but putting this scenario back in active play needs a turn below support in the 1303.70-09.12 area. Confirmation would then require a break of the pattern’s neckline, now at 1282.44.
· Gold’s move up to $1,323 could mean that a rally towards $1,360 is coming “sooner-than-expected,” said TD Securities, citing a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve as a trigger for the yellow metal.
“Gold set [to] rally towards our $1,360/oz target sooner-than-expected,” TD Securities commodity strategists wrote in a note on Monday. “Given that the market is increasingly pricing in a U.S. rate cut this year, the US dollar is on a weak footing and considering that equities are generally more worried about growth, gold could well move into a higher trading range sooner than expected.”
TD Securities sees gold prices rising to $1,360 within three months and then moving towards $1,400 next year.
The latest boost to gold prices came from the drop in rates across the yield curve, noted TD Securities.
· Gold Technical Analysis: Bulls in control above 1316, targetting 78.6% Fibo in 1332s
While above 1316, gold bulls are in control, currently challenging the 61.8% Fibo within the rising wedge formation, with targets set on the 78.6% Fibo.
· Among other precious metals, palladium slipped 0.1 percent to $1,575 per ounce, after touching its lowest in two weeks at $1,532.56 in the previous session.
Silver was flat at $15.54, while platinum dipped 0.2 percent to $853.45 an ounce.
Reference: Reuters, Daily FX, FX Street
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