• European parliament elections: The Brexit effect

    23 May 2019 | Economic News
 


Remember that domino effect Brexit was predicted to trigger back in 2016?


Frexit (France leaving the EU), Italexit (Italy walking out the door), Nexit (the Netherlands following suit) and so on?



Fast-forward almost three years and here we are, on the eve of the European parliamentary elections - and although Eurosceptic parties are expected to make a strong showing at the polls, there's not a peep amongst them (UK parties remaining the exception) about leaving the EU.



Why have European voters gone off the idea?



In part, this is down to a growing awareness that the world out there is downright unpredictable: with President Trump in the White House; Russian President Putin at large around the European corner; looming trade wars; the environment in a mess; and the threat of mass migration to this continent from poorer parts of the globe.



The conclusion amongst many in Europe is that it's safer to stick together. According to opinion polls, the EU is now more popular than it has been since the early 1980s.



But there's another big reason that leaving is no longer so appealing: Brexit.



So, ahead of this week's election for the European Parliament, Europe's right-wing nationalists - including Marine Le Pen of France, Italy's firebrand deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini, and the AfD - have been calling to "change the EU from the inside" rather than walk away from it altogether.





But not everyone is looking to the nationalist right for answers.



The far left, the populist left (like Spain's Podemos), single issue parties and environmental groups also expect a boost. The Greens dream of becoming kingmakers in the new European Parliament too.



It's very likely that we'll see a similar trend to one we've witnessed in general election after general election across the EU: a slap in the face for traditional political parties that have governed Europe since the end of World War Two.



Overall though, pro-EU groups will likely dominate the new European Parliament.



The traditional centre-left (social democrat) and centre-right (Christian-democrat/conservative) factions may be in danger of losing their overall majority for the first time, but they'll still probably emerge as the two biggest groups.



Yet this threatens to be a very splintered parliament.


Reference: BCC

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48364626


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