· Gold eased on Wednesday, after rising over 1% in the previous session on fears of a possible recession, but held close to a more than six-year high on hopes of a rate cut by the U.S. central bank and uncertainties around the Sino-U.S. trade talks.
· Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,535.69 per ounce, as of 0426 GMT. On Monday it touched $1554.56, its highest in over six-years.
U.S. gold futures were down 0.4% at $1,545.10 an ounce.
· “It is more of a corrective move. We saw prices close above the resistance at $1,535 over the past 24 hours... So, gold is retesting the $1,535 level which is common when you break a technical level,” said Ilya Spivak, senior currency strategist with DailyFx.
Adding some pressure on bullion was a firm dollar, which was up 0.1% against key rivals, while Asian equities posted modest gains.
· Gold rose more than 1% in the previous session as an inversion in the U.S. yield curve and disappointing U.S. economic data rekindled fears of a looming recession amid uncertainties in the U.S.-China trade dispute.
· The yield curve inversion deepened to levels not seen since 2007.
· “People are beginning to think that the economy is not doing that well, there could be a possible recession, or more likely, a slowing economy, which means the Federal Reserve will have to cut rates and that supports gold, ” said John Sharma, an economist with National Australia Bank.
· Federal funds futures implied traders saw a 91% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the U.S. central bank next month.
· Sharma also said that as long as the Sino-U.S. trade issue continues, gold will be well supported.
· U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday predicted a trade deal with China but optimism wilted after China’s foreign ministry spokesperson dismissed claims that there had been phone calls between the two sides.
· However, “if there are some sort of tangible signs that the (U.S.-China trade) talks are going to restart, or at least that they are getting there: it would be a risk-on outcome and we can see yields go higher and push gold a bit lower,” DailyFx’s Spivak said.
· Gold has been trending sideways in a channel for a few days now, currently I see key support at the 1537 level. It will need to break this level to go lower but has just bounced off it to create more support. The next key support level is around 1526, if it breaks this we go lower. Looking higher, if it breaks the resistance channel upwards of 1550 the next target is 1560.
· A forgery crisis is quietly roiling the world’s gold industry.
Gold bars fraudulently stamped with the logos of major refineries are being inserted into the global market to launder smuggled or illegal gold, refining and banking executives tell Reuters. The fakes are hard to detect, making them an ideal fund-runner for narcotics dealers or warlords.
It is not clear who is making the bars found so far, but executives and bankers told Reuters they think most originate in China, the world’s largest gold producer and importer, and have entered the market via dealers and trading houses in Hong Kong, Japan and Thailand. Once accepted by a mainstream gold dealer in these places, they can quickly spread into supply chains worldwide.
· Elesewhere, spot silver was steady at $18.16 an ounce, having earlier touched $18.34, its highest level since April 2017.
· Platinum climbed 0.4% to $868.70 an ounce, after touching its highest in nearly a month earlier in the session, while palladium eased 0.3% to $1,477.
Reference: CNBC, Trading View, Reuters
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