Spot gold was steady at $1,516.33 per ounce at 0406 GMT. Prices had climbed to a more than one-week high of $1,516.81 in the previous session.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.59 % to $1,523.80 per ounce.
· “Gold is currently in a mixed zone.” said Howie Lee, economist at OCBC Bank.
“The pickup in geopolitical risk from Saudi Arabia and President Trump rejecting the possibility of a partial trade deal with China certainly adds that little more shine to gold.”
A U.S.-China trade breakthrough seemed unlikely after President Donald Trump told reporters on Friday he was “not looking” for a partial deal, and Chinese officials cancelled goodwill visits to U.S. farmers.
But both sides later published positive statements, with the U.S. Trade Representative’s office describing the last week’s talks as “productive” and China’s Commerce Ministry calling them “constructive.” October’s high-level talks remain on track.
· Meanwhile in the Middle East, tensions remained elevated with the Pentagon ordering additional troops to be deployed in the Gulf region to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s air and missile defenses, following an attack on the kingdom’s oil facilities. U.S. has slapped more sanctions on Iran, penalizing the Iranian Central Bank.
Saudi Arabia will also seek to make a case at a global gathering in New York this week for concerted action to punish and deter Iran after the strikes.
“The safe heaven status is still supporting gold. But the prices are stuck between $1,480 and $1,580,” said OANDA analyst Jeffrey Halley.
· Indicative of investor interest in gold, holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 1.19% to 894.15 tonnes on Friday.
· Meanwhile, COMEX gold speculators raise net long position by 14,150 contracts to 261,878 in week to Sept. 17, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
· Gold prices fail to portray the recent risk-aversion wave as they remain below near-term resistance-line while taking rounds to $1,513 on early Monday.
Renewed geopolitical tension between Saudi Arabia and Yemen has been a major driving force for markets’ immediate risk sentiment off-late. Following a threat from Houthi rebels, Saudi Arabia has also flashed signals of war if an attack takes place whereas the US deployed additional forces in the Middle East as a measure being “defensive in nature’.
On the other hand, Chinese delegates’ early leave from the US, without visiting the US farms, got a negative signal relating to the recently conducted trade negotiations in Washington. However, the US and Chinese media have been trying to cover the issue in order to (likely) avoid the bad start of the talks in October.
Technical Analysis
Unless breaking a short-term descending resistance-line, at $1,517, prices are less likely to aim for September 04 low near $1,534 and the monthly top close to $1,557. As a result, $1,500 and $1,480 remain in the sellers’ watch-list for now.
1. Gold closed above the support, till its held it can move to $1527. If this is crossed it can rally till $1541. And if this is taken out it can rise towards $1554.
2. Short trades showed some interest but it faded out again after the breakout in lower time frames.
Bullish view – Bulls got back to winning ways as they conquered $1500 again after a very brief fallout which adds on more weight to the ongoing bullish trend . With U.S Fed presenting a dovish stance after another rate cut, it further propels the idea of a weaker dollar thus bullishness for gold prices. Fundamentals continue to support higher price as global tensions refuse to cease along with technical supports of the moving average and continuing pattern which should make $1800 look really close.
Bearish bets again wandered off the table as gold remains in uptrend.
On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
· E.B. Tucker, director of Metalla Royalty & Streaming, doubled down on his bet earlier this year that gold would eventually rise to $1,500, an now he’s betting that silver will hit $20 in the next two months.
“Right now, we want to trade silver up to $20. We think gold is going to stabilize at $1,500 and we see silver moving to $20, so that’s a 12% move we think we can capture in the next probably eight weeks. We see that as pretty much a certainty, and we’re willing to bet on that,” Tucker told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Denver Gold Forum.
Meanwhile, Main Street investors remain strongly bullish on gold in the short term.
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, said that while $17 trillion in negative interest rates and renewed economic uncertainty in Europe will keep a floor under gold, he sees strong equilibrium in the market.
“Any move to $1,520 is sharply sold. But any move towards $1,480 is quickly bought so maybe we have found gold’s fair value for now,” he said.
“I don’t think anyone wants to go home short gold anytime soon,” said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading with MKS (Switzerland) SA. “I think there is a better chance of seeing gold at $1,520 and at $1,480. The economic situation is not getting any easier,” he said.
Adam Button, managing director at Forexlive.com, said that gold appears to be forming a base between $1,480 and $1,510; he added that he is bullish on gold in the near-term as he expects the latest trade talks between the U.S. and China to break down.
Some analysts have noted that gold’s resilient price action above $1,500 this week after the Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday that it is expecting to hold interest rates between 1.75% and 2.00% through 2020.
However, some analysts expect that because of slowing growth in the global economy, it is only a matter of time before the U.S. central bank will be forced to cut interest rates again.
Gold prices may be forming a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) top. Confirming the setup on a daily close below 1480 would imply a measured target near $1400/oz, with support in the 1437.70-52.95 noted along the way. An upturn through resistance at 1523.05 aims for the weekly chart inflection level at 1563.00.
· Spot palladium hit a fresh high at $1,659.27 per ounce.
· Silver rose 1.5% to $18.26 per ounce and platinum rose nearly 1% to $955.03 per ounce.
Reference: Reuters,FX Street,Kitco