• MTS Economic News_20191105

    5 Nov 2019 | Economic News

· The U.S. dollar advanced against the yen on Tuesday thanks to growing optimism the United States and China are on the verge of reaching a preliminary agreement to scale back their bruising trade war.

Any progress in resolving the row could potentially boost the dollar and riskier assets, ease concern about the economic outlook and reduce the need for aggressive monetary easing.

“The mood is very much risk on, so that’s how investors will approach the market,” said Minori Uchida, head of global market research at MUFG Bank in Tokyo.

The dollar rose 0.17% to 108.77 yen JPY=EBS in Asia, adding to a 0.4% gain on Monday.

The dollar index .DXY against a basket of six major currencies rose 0.1% to 97.599, reaching its highest in almost a week.

· The U.S. is ratcheting up pressure on Chinese technology firms and that may be a long-term strategy that continues — even if a trade deal is reached, one expert told CNBC.

Popular Chinese app TikTok is the latest company in Washington’s crosshairs.

A U.S. regulatory committee — the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) — contacted the app’s parent company Bytedance over concerns that its 2017 acquisition of social media app Musical.ly, could be a national security risk, a person familiar with the situation told CNBC.

The Trump administration’s focus on Chinese tech giants is due to national security concern and worries about the competitive threat to American firms, experts told CNBC. They said it could potentially be used as a leverage in trade negotiations — but even if a trade deal is reached, Chinese technology firms will not be in the clear.

· China’s central bank cut the interest rate on its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans on Tuesday for the first time since early 2016, as policymakers work to prop up a slowing economy hit by weaker demand at home and abroad.

Analysts said the cut, while modest, may be a sign the central bank is turning more proactive and is looking to ease investor worries that higher inflation will prevent it from delivering fresh stimulus measures.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it was lowering the rate on its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to financial institutions CNMLF1YRRP=PBOC by 5 basis points to 3.25% from 3.30%previously.

· According to analysts at ANZ, the 5bp cut in the MLF rate today from PBoC will likely lead to similar adjustments in the reverse repo rate and the loan prime rate (LPR).

“We also expect the PBoC to still deliver a TMLF before end-2019, at a lower rate of 3.10%, providing more incentives for banks to fund small-to-medium enterprises during the fourth quarter.”

· India on Monday declined to join an Asia Pacific trade pact that would form a major trading bloc involving the region’s top economies and cover nearly a third of the world’s gross domestic product.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership was an agreement between the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations and six of its large trading partners that includes China and India.

The trade pact is due to be signed next year, according to Thailand.

“This reflects both our assessment of the current global situation as well as of the fairness and balance of the agreement,” Singh told reporters in Bangkok, during a press briefing. “India had significant issues of core interest that remained unresolved.”

“In the given circumstances, we believe that not joining the agreement is the right decision for India. We would continue to persevere and strengthening our trade, investment and people-to-people relations with this region,” Singh said.

“Despite significant concessions and offers of safeguard measures from China, India remains concerned about the potential surge of Chinese imports and what it argues is a lack of progress on its offensive interests, notably services market access,” analysts at political consultancy Eurasia Group, wrote in a note Monday note.

· Thailand has been a “leading beneficiary” from the ongoing trade fight between Washington and Beijing, according to Standard Chartered’s Clive McDonnell.

He pointed to the Thai baht “appreciating strongly” against the dollar as evidence of the Southeast Asian nation benefiting from the U.S.-China trade war. Since the start of the year, the Thai currency has appreciated more than 6% against the dollar.

The trade battle has “increased the importance of Thailand” as a base for manufacturing Japanese goods such as auto parts and electronics to be exported to America, McDonnell explained in an email to CNBC. Japan is Thailand’s largest source of foreign direct investment, he said.

· Oil prices steadied on Tuesday as investors kept an eye on U.S. inventory data due later, following two days of gains on positive economic data and hopes for a Washington-Beijing trade deal.

Brent crude futures were up 4 cents at $62.17 a barrel at 0330 GMT after gaining 0.7% in the previous session.

U.S. crude futures were down 1 cent at $56.53 a barrel. They gained 0.6% on Monday.

· OPEC has downwardly revised its forecast for global oil demand growth over both the medium-term and long-term, citing tough market conditions and “signs of stress” in the world economy.

“Signs of stress have appeared in the global economy, and the outlook for global growth, at least in the short- and medium-term, has been revised down repeatedly over the past year,” OPEC said.

As a result, OPEC has lowered its outlook numbers for global oil demand growth, to 104.8 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2024, and 110.6 million b/d by 2040.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC 

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