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· Doubts over whether the United States and China will be able to reach a preliminary trade deal helped to lift safe-haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc on Thursday, while pulling the yuan lower.

A new Reuters poll showed most economists do not expect Washington and Beijing to reach a permanent trade truce over the coming year.

The yen firmed to 108.77 yen per dollar, having risen to as high as 108.66 in previous U.S. trade.

The euro stood little changed at $1.10075, having touched one-month low of $1.0995 in U.S. trade while the dollar index stood not far from one-month high touched in the previous session.

The index last stood at 98.38.

· The Chinese yuan could strengthen against the greenback if China and the U.S. sign a so-called phase one trade agreement, according to an economist from Credit Agricole.

“There are of course doubts about this phase one deal. But ultimately we believe there’s an 80% chance that it will be signed in this quarter and if that happens, the renminbi will probably drop to towards 6.90,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Thursday.

Chinese currency traded both onshore and offshore have been hovering around 7.0 yuan per dollar for the past month. Onshore and offshore yuan last touched 6.90 against the greenback in August and July, respectively.

· China and the United States are holding in-depth discussions on a “phase one” trade agreement, and cancelling tariffs is an important condition to reach such a deal, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday.

· China’s industrial output grew significantly slower than expected in October, as weakness in global and domestic demand and the drawn-out Sino-U.S. trade war weighed on activity in the world’s second-largest economy.

Industrial production rose 4.7% year-on-year in October, data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Thursday showed, below the median forecast of 5.4% growth in a Reuters poll.

Indicators showed other sectors also slowing significantly and missing forecasts with retail sales growth back near a 16-year trough and fixed asset investment growth the weakest on record.

The disappointing economic data adds to the case for Beijing to roll out fresh support for the economy after China’s economic growth slowed to its weakest pace in almost three decades in the third quarter.

· Chinese policymakers should pursue a proactive fiscal policy and cut interest rates to support flagging economic growth, a financial magazine on Tuesday quoted Sheng Songcheng, a former adviser to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), as saying.

But as China does not face the same deflationary pressures that exist overseas, fiscal policy measures should be the first consideration, with monetary policy playing a supporting role, Yicai quoted Sheng as saying.

· Germany has narrowly avoided a technical recession, after the latest figures showed the country’s economy grew by 0.1% in the third quarter.

Germany’s GDP (gross domestic product) rate exceeded the -0.1% contraction expected by analysts. On an annual basis, the economy grew by 0.5% from July to September, the Federal Statistics Office reported. Second-quarter growth was revised down from -0.1% to -0.2% and two consecutive periods of negative growth would have constituted an official recession.

· All schools in Hong Kong will suspend classes from Friday to Sunday due to transportation disruptions, following a similar move on Thursday, the Hong Kong Education Bureau said.

The bureau made the announcement in a statement, and urged students to stay away from violence.

Anti-government protesters paralyzed parts of Hong Kong for a fourth straight day on Thursday, forcing school closures and blocking highways and other transport links to disrupt the financial hub amid a marked escalation of violence.

· Even after months of protests and escalating violence, Hong Kong is still a “very good proxy” for foreign investors wanting to access the vast China market, an economist said on Wednesday.

“Since 1997, (Hong Kong) has really evolved from quite a broad-based international financial center to now, a more China-centric offshore center. So if we take that into consideration, Hong Kong has been a very good proxy for foreign investors to invest into China-related assets,” said Gary Ng, Asia Pacific economist at Natixis.

He attributed it to three factors: the territory’s free capital outflow structure, its legal framework, and a very simple tax system.

· Expectations for an interest rate cut do not rise above 30% before July 2020, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. And the slim chances of a cut in the months prior on Wednesday became slimmer.

· Oil rose on Thursday after industry data showed a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories, while comments from an OPEC official about lower-than-expected U.S. shale production growth in 2020 also provided some support.

Prices, however, were capped by mixed signs for oil demand in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, as industrial output rose more slowly than expected in October, but oil refinery throughput hit the second-highest level ever.

Brent futures LCOc1 rose 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $62.76 per barrel by 0606 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 gained 39 cents, or 0.7%, to reach $57.51.

The Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Mohammad Barkindo said on Wednesday that there would likely be downward revisions of supply going into 2020, especially from United States shale, adding that some U.S. shale oil firms see output growing by only 300,000-400,000 barrels per day (bpd)