• MTS Economic News_20191218

    18 Dec 2019 | Economic News

· The pound nursed heavy losses on Wednesday after tumbling when Britain re-set a hard deadline for quitting the European Union, rekindling old fears of a chaotic exit from the bloc.

The 1.6% plunge was the steepest in more than a year and wiped out gains after Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s landslide electoral victory last week. His government, which campaigned to “get Brexit done,” set the end of 2020 as an immovable deadline.

Sterling, which soared above $1.35 after Johnson’s win, last traded at $1.3133, below where it sat before polling day. Against the euro, the pound dropped as much as 1.8% before recovering slightly to sit at 84.92 pence per euro.

Elsewhere moves were slight as trading slows down into the holiday season and as the currency market waits for details on the China-U.S. trade deal.

German business sentiment data is due later on Wednesday, along with a speech from European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde at 0830 GMT and remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans at 1740 GMT.

The greenback was steady on the euro at $1.1151.

· For all the attention the Democratic 2020 hopefuls garner, many on Wall Street are preparing for a second term for President Donald Trump and what that might mean for economic policy.

A second term would see the administration go after the globe’s multilateral trade institutions, multiple Wall Street policy analysts said. It would also allow Trump to further pressure Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and eventually replace him when his term expires in 2022 with a more amenable monetary policy head, according to analysts.

Cowen policy analyst Chris Krueger said a reelection victory could also embolden Trump to pursue big-ticket spending items and blast anyone he believes is impeding economic growth.

“I think if he wins reelection next year, we’re going to see Trump totally unchained,” Krueger said. “He’s going to do [to Powell] what he did to Jeff Sessions.”

To be sure, a split Congress is likely to keep in check whoever wins the White House in November. Republicans are expected to keep the Senate and Democrats the House of Representatives, with political betting site PredictIt showing the GOP’s chances to keep the Senate at 66% and the Democrats’ chances to keep the House at 74%.

· Less than a week after winning a landslide victory in the United Kingdom’s general elections, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is laying out plans to fulfill his signature campaign promise: getting Brexit done.

On Tuesday, the prime minister’s office said Parliament could hold its first vote on Johnson’s Brexit deal as early as this Friday. That would be the first step toward the UK leaving the European Union by the current deadline of January 31, 2020.

But Johnson also signaled that he’s keeping another one of his riskier campaign promises: to not extend the Brexit transition period past 2020. The prime minister’s office indicated it will tweak the Brexit legislation — which puts Johnson’s Brexit deal into UK law — to eliminate the possibility of extending the transition period past 2020.

That means the UK and the EU would have to strike a new trade deal between January 31 and before December 31, 2020. That’s about 11 months, for those counting.

· Japan’s exports slipped for a 12th straight month in November, as declining shipments to the United States and China hit the trade-reliant economy, raising the risk of a fourth-quarter contraction.

Official data released on Wednesday showed Japan’s exports fell 7.9% year-on-year in November, a smaller decline than the 8.6% decline expected by economists in a Reuters poll.

The nation’s overall imports sank 15.7% year-on-year, marking their largest decline since Oct. 2016, and a larger fall than the median estimate for a 12.7% decrease.

· Confidence among Asian businesses rebounded sharply this quarter to hit an 18-month high with firms reporting a pickup in sales, though most are holding off on hiring as trade war uncertainty weighs, a Thomson Reuters/INSEAD survey found.

The Thomson Reuters/INSEAD Asian Business Sentiment Index tracking firms’ six-month outlook jumped 13 points to 71 for the fourth quarter. That lifted confidence from close to a decade low in the previous quarter to its highest since June last year.

· Chinese buying of American farm products will be determined by how competitive they are, and not just by estimates laid out in an initial trade accord, according to a US government trade adviser.

While China has pledged to buy at least US$80 billion in US produce in the next two years, according to US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, purchases probably will be attuned to market conditions, said Tom Kehoe, an adviser to the US Department of Agriculture and Lighthizer.

· European Central Bank head honcho Christine Lagarde is due to speak at 0830 GMT on 18 December 2019

At an ECB conference: Monetary policy: the challenges ahead

Lagarde will deliver opening remarks

Former head Draghi will then speak

· Oil prices dropped on Wednesday after U.S. industry data showed a surprise build in crude inventories, but expectations for firmer demand next year kept losses in check.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 dropped 38 cents, or 0.57%, to $65.72 a barrel by 0730 GMT on Wednesday. The international benchmark rose 1.2% to $66.10 a barrel on Tuesday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 fell 46 cents, or 0.75%, to $60.48 per barrel.

· Thailand’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low on Wednesday, while it cut its growth forecasts for this year and next as exports take a hit from the Sino-U.S. trade war and a strong baht.

The Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) monetary policy committee (MPC) voted unanimously to keep the one-day repurchase rate THCBIR=ECI at 1.25%, a record low last seen during the global financial crisis.

The BOT trimmed its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.8% estimated in September and lowered its 2020 growth outlook to 2.8% from 3.3% on heightened external risks. Last year’s growth was 4.1%.

Exports, a key driver of economic growth, are now expected to shrink 3.3% this year, compared with a 1% fall seen earlier. Next year’s exports are expected to rise by a smaller 0.5%, rather than 1.7%.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC,FXStreet,South China Morning Post

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