• MTS Economic News 20200305

    5 Mar 2020 | Economic News


· CORONAVIRUS UPDATES:

Ø Total confirmed cases: More than 95,184

Ø Total deaths: At least 3,254

Ø The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 84 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan).

Ø US cases: At least 158, and deaths: 11


- New York confirms 5 new cases

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo confirmed five new COVID-19 cases in the state — hours after he said that a family in Westchester was infected with the virus, bringing the state’s total to 11.

The cases all stem from a Westchester lawyer who worked in Manhattan and is in critical condition in New York Presbyterian Hospital, Cuomo said.

- United cutting flights in April amid coronavirus outbreak, slowing demand

United Airlines announced deep cuts to its schedule next month amid the global coronavirus outbreak and slowing demand.

The airline will cut international flights by 20% and domestic flights by 10%. Some wide-body planes will be parked, the company said.

Airlines around the world have cut back on itineraries as COVID-19 hamstrings travel. The viral outbreak, which originated in China, has spread to more than 5 continents.

- House passes $8.3 billion emergency spending plan

The House passed a sweeping bill allocating more than $8 billion in emergency funds to combat the spread of the deadly coronavirus.

The funding package, which provides more than $3 billion in vaccine research and $2.2 billion in prevention and preparedness efforts, was unveiled hours earlier following days of negotiations on Capitol Hill.

The emergency coronavirus bill will head to the Senate, where leaders there hope they can quickly bring it to a vote. If the bill passes that chamber, it will move to the Oval Office desk of President Donald Trump, who is expected to sign it.

- Iran has 92 coronavirus deaths, 2,922 infections, health ministry says

Iran has published its latest coronavirus data, stating that 92 people have died in Iran from the new coronavirus and 2,922 have been infected, Health Ministry spokesman Kianush Jahanpur announced on state TV, Reuters reported.

- German cases continue to rise

The total number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Germany has risen to 262, from 196 cases on Tuesday according to the RKI health institute. North Rhine-Westphalia is the worst affected state with 111 cases; the capital Berlin has six cases.


- IMF announces $50 billion program to fight coronavirus outbreak

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva announced a $50 billion aid package Wednesday to help fight the coronavirus.

Georgieva said on CNBC’s “Squawk Alley” that the money is available “immediately” and is for low-income and emerging market countries.

The World Bank announced a $12 billion program on Monday to help poor nations deal with the health and economic consequences of the epidemic.

- IMF chief says coronavirus erases hopes for stronger growth in 2020

The global spread of the novel coronavirus has crushed hopes for stronger growth this year and will hold 2020 global output gains to their slowest pace since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Wednesday.

The IMF now expects 2020 world growth to be below the 2.9% rate for 2019, and revised forecasts will be issued in the coming weeks, Georgieva told a news briefing. Trade wars pushed global growth last year to the lowest rate since a 0.7% contraction in 2009.

The changed forecast would represent a more than 0.4-percentage-point drop from the 3.3% growth the IMF had estimated for 2020 in January as U.S.-China trade tensions eased.

“Global growth in 2020 will dip below last year’s levels, but how far it will fall and how long the impact will be is still difficult to predict,” Georgieva said.

She declined to say whether the escalating health crisis could push the world into a recession.

- WHO warns of global shortage of medical equipment to fight coronavirus

The World Health Organization (WHO) on Tuesday warned of a global shortage and price gouging for protective equipment to fight the fast-spreading coronavirus and asked companies and governments to increase production by 40% as the death toll from the respiratory illness mounted.

In Iran, doctors and nurses lack supplies and 77 people have died, one of the highest numbers outside China. The United Arab Emirates announced it was closing all schools for four weeks.

The death toll in Italy, Europe’s hardest-hit country, jumped to 79 on Tuesday and Italian officials are considering expanding the area under quarantine. France reported its fourth coronavirus death, while Indonesia, Ukraine, Argentina and Chile reported their first coronavirus cases.

About 3.4% of confirmed cases of COVID-19 have died, far above seasonal flu’s fatality rate of under 1%, but the virus can be contained, the WHO chief said on Tuesday.

- The Japanese government played down speculation over whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will take place from July 24 to August 9 this year, as the number of coronavirus cases in the country topped 1,000.

· Fed ‘Beige Book’ shows business worried about coronavirus and the election

The U.S. economy continues to move forward but faces risks from both the presidential election and the feared spread of the novel coronavirus, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday.

In the central bank’s periodic “Beige Book” report from its member districts, officials saw activity growing at a “modest to moderate pace.” Threats from the coronavirus specifically did not seem to pose a major threat yet, though business contacts said they were worried about potential ramifications to come.

“There were indications that the coronavirus was negatively impacting travel and tourism in the U.S.,” the report said. “Manufacturing activity expanded in most parts of the country; however, some supply chain delays were reported as a result of the coronavirus and several Districts said that producers feared further disruptions in the coming weeks.”

· Fed's Bullard: Not much more data coming to warrant rate cut at March meeting

The U.S. Federal Reserve will not have much additional information in hand at its March 17-18 meeting to justify another interest rate cut beyond the 0.5 percentage point emergency reduction approved this week, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Wednesday.

The Fed on Tuesday, in its first rate cut outside of a regularly scheduled policy meeting since the height of the financial crisis in 2008, acted to shield the U.S. economy from the impact of the fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak.

“I don’t want to prejudge what will happen at the March meeting,” Bullard said on Wednesday, speaking before an academic lecture sponsored by the St. Louis Fed. “But we are not going to have a lot of information that is new.”

· Emergency Fed rate cut helps China with longer-term currency goals

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s emergency interest rate cut gives China’s central bank much more leeway to lower its own rates, and boost the internationalization of the yuan, analysts said.

The Fed’s loosening of monetary policy will likely accelerate similar moves by the People’s Bank of China, said Zhao Bowen, research director at Beijing-based Blue Stone Asset Management.

“The bottom line is opened more,” he said, according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks. But he noted increased fiscal spending is what China will really need to support economic growth. According to his calculations, GDP growth in the second and third quarter must reach at least 7.5% in order for the country to achieve its implied goal of roughly 5.5% for 2020.

While the timing and exact scale of expected PBOC rate cuts vary, analysts pointed out the Fed’s move will keep the Chinese yuan from weakening too much, alleviating concerns about capital outflows, and even boost inflows in the near future.

Cao Yanghui, deputy director of the Nanhua Futures Research Institute, said the coronavirus’ spread in China has entered a more stable period than overseas.

· Biden's Super Tuesday surge reboots Democratic presidential race


The search for a Democrat to challenge Republican President Donald Trump in the Nov. 3 election narrowed on Wednesday to a choice between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden, who staged a comeback in Super Tuesday voting to become the undisputed standard-bearer of the party’s moderate wing.

Bloomberg on Wednesday gave up his presidential campaign and endorsed Biden, after spending hundreds of millions of dollars of his own money on ads across the United States. But Bloomberg failed to deliver convincing results on Tuesday, the biggest day of voting in the Democratic nomination campaign with contests in 14 states across the country.

Now Sanders and Biden will likely battle tooth-and-nail over the next several weeks to determine which ideological course the party takes in the run-up to the Nov. 3 general election against Republican President Donald Trump.

And looming large is Florida, with its 219 delegates, where polls have shown Biden with a steady lead in the state.

· Dollar regains footing after Fed-driven stumble

The dollar recouped some losses on Wednesday as traders looked to see which other major central banks might follow the U.S. Federal Reserve and make emergency cuts to their interest rates.

The Fed surprised investors by slashing rates by 50 basis points to a target range of 1.00% to 1.25% on Tuesday, two weeks before a regularly scheduled policy meeting, in an effort to combat the effects of the coronavirus.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was last at 97.372 after seeing earlier highs around 97.6.

The euro has been one of the currencies to climb on the broad-based dollar weakness of recent weeks and it had slipped back to $1.1145 ahead of U.S. trading from Tuesday’s two-month high at $1.12135.

Money markets in the euro zone are pricing a 90% chance that the ECB will cut its deposit rate, now minus 0.50%, by 10 bps next week.

They are also pricing a 50% chance of a second, 25 bps cut in April by the Fed though some analysts are already talking about U.S. central bank hitting zero percent before the end of the year.

The dollar, which also fell to a five-month low of 106.85 yen in Asia on Wednesday, was last up 0.35% at 107.51 yen. It was also up 0.2% against a basket of currencies.

The chance of a swift cut from the Bank of England brought sterling down to $1.2792, 0.2% on the day. Uncertainty about trade talks between Britain and the European Union is weighing on sterling too.

· Brazil 2020 economic outlook darkens after lowest GDP growth in three years

Brazil’s economy grew 1.1% last year, official figures showed on Wednesday, the lowest GDP growth rate in three years as a fourth-quarter slowdown pointed to a continuing weak recovery from the 2015-16 recession this year.

The economy was already off to a soft start to 2020, well before the coronavirus outbreak that has suddenly cast a huge shadow over the world economy.

Economists at Citi on Wednesday became the latest to slash their 2020 growth and interest rate outlook, while Brazil’s real slumped to a new low of 4.58 per dollar as expectations snowballed that the central bank will soon cut rates.

· Oil moves lower as Street eyes OPEC meeting

Oil prices fell on Wednesday despite expectations that major producers have moved closer to an agreement to enact deeper output cuts aimed at offsetting the slump in demand caused by the coronavirus outbreak.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 40 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $46.78 per barrel. Brent crude was unchanged at $51.86 per barrel.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that for the week ending Feb. 28 inventories increased by 800,000 barrels, which was smaller than analysts had been expecting.

Reference: Reuters, CNBC, Worldometers

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