• MTS Economic News_20200521

    22 May 2020 | Economic News

· Dollar edges up on rising U.S.-China tension; yuan, other Asian FX fall

The dollar gained against major peers on Friday as worries about rising diplomatic tensions between the United States and China supported safe-haven demand for the greenback.

Sino-U.S. relations have soured over a broad range of issues, including China’s treatment of the former British colony of Hong Kong and its response to the coronavirus pandemic, which is causing risk aversion to spread.

The fresh geopolitical strains also boosted the safe-haven yen but sent the yuan to a 1-1/2 month low and rattled both the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

While the new frictions added some pressures to the yuan, the Chinese currency also found some support after policymakers in Beijing unveiled new stimulus measures, as widely expected.

The dollar rose 0.24% to $1.0925 per euro EUR=EBS on Friday, following a 0.3% increase in the previous session.

There is a risk that Hong Kong could lose some of its favourable U.S. trading terms that have helped it maintain its position as a global financial centre.

The Hong Kong dollar HKD=D3 was little changed on Friday near the top end of its narrow 7.75-7.85 band against the greenback. Shares in Hong Kong .HSI tumbled more than 5%, highlighting investors' concerns.

The tension has stirred memories of last year’s drawn-out trade war between the two economic superpowers, which roiled global financial markets.

Onshore, the yuan CNY=CFXS briefly fell to the lowest since April 2 before paring losses to trade at 7.1210 against the dollar.

Elsewhere, the yen JPY=EBS edged up to 107.46 per against the greenback. Japan's currency also rose 0.6% against the Aussie AUDJPY= and gained 0.4% against the kiwi due to safe-haven inflows.

The yen did not budge earlier in the Asian session when the Bank of Japan decided the details of a lending scheme for small companies hurt by the pandemic at an emergency meeting on Friday.

· US Treasury yields move lower on increased tension between U.S. and China

U.S. government debt prices were higher Friday morning on concerns over new instability in Hong Kong and increasing tensions between Washington and Beijing.

At 2:30 a.m ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was trading lower at 0.6428% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also moving lower at 1.3517%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Investors are reacting to the latest news that China is set to impose a new national security law on Hong Kong, which could spark further anti-government protests. Beijing’s control over the city will likely evoke the ire of the U.S. and other Western powers which supported pro-democracy protesters.

In addition, China has said that it will not set a growth target for 2020, given the uncertainty sparked by the Covid-19 pandemic.

There are no economic data releases, Fed speeches or Treasury auctions Friday as the U.S. heads for an extended weekend to commemorate Memorial Day on Monday.

· China decides not to set a GDP target for 2020 as coronavirus batters the economy

China made a rare decision not to set a target for its economic growth for 2020 due to uncertainties about the impact of the coronavirus.

“I would like to point out that we have not set a specific target for economic growth this year,” Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said in an English-language text of the work report delivered on Friday.

“This is because our country will face some factors that are difficult to predict in its development due to the great uncertainty regarding the Covid-19 pandemic and the world economic and trade environment,” Li said.

The remarks are part of China’s annual parliamentary meeting, which was delayed by about two months this year due to the coronavirus outbreak that began in China last year and has since spread globally.

As a result, some analysts expected ahead of the report that Li might share a GDP target for a timeframe other than 2020 itself. Last year, GDP expanded by 6.1%, just making the official target range of 6% to 6.5%.

· Thailand reports no new coronavirus cases, no new deaths

Thailand on Friday reported no new coronavirus infections or deaths, maintaining the total of 3,037 confirmed cases and 56 fatalities since the outbreak started in January.

There are 2,910 patients who have recovered and returned home since the outbreak started, the government’s coronavirus task force said in an update.

· U.S.-China tensions will likely get worse ahead of November election, experts say

Tensions between the U.S. and China will likely get worse ahead of the American presidential election this November, experts told CNBC on Thursday.

The world’s two largest economies have been embroiled in a long-drawn trade war and are now in a tussle over issues surrounding the coronavirus pandemic.

U.S. President Donald Trump has blamed Beijing for a lack of transparency over the true extent of the Covid-19 outbreak in China, where cases were first reported. In response, Beijing suggested that the U.S. might be the real source of the global pandemic.

With Trump campaigning for a second term in office, “the end game for the Trump administration is crystal clear — and that is winning the election,” said Yale University senior fellow, Stephen Roach.

“This is not about improving economic security for Americans, American companies, no matter what they say. This is a politically motivated trade conflict,” said Roach, who is a former chairman at Morgan Stanley Asia.

· China to draft food security plan amid global coronavirus epidemic

China will draft and carry out in 2020 a response plan for ensuring food security amid the global coronavirus pandemic, the country’s state planner said on Friday.

Beijing will also draw up a new national medium-to-long-term plan in the new year to secure food supplies, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in an annual report to parliament.

The move came as the pandemic has roiled agriculture supply chains worldwide, and threatened to trigger a potential food crisis.

Chinese authorities have urged state and private firms to boost inventories of major agriculture products like soybeans and corn to prepare for any further disruptions from the outbreak.

“It is imperative, and it is well within our ability, to ensure the food supply for 1.4 billion Chinese people through our own efforts,” China’s Premier Li Keqiang said to parliament.

· U.S. senators seek to sanction Chinese officials over Hong Kong

Republican and Democratic U.S. senators said on Thursday they would introduce legislation to impose sanctions on Chinese officials for violating Hong Kong’s independence, after Beijing moved to impose a new security law on the former British colony.

The bill, to be introduced by Republican Senator Pat Toomey and Democrat Chris Van Hollen, would also impose secondary sanctions on banks that do business with entities found to violate the law guaranteeing Hong Kong’s autonomy.

A Chinese official said on Thursday that China is set to impose new national security legislation on Hong Kong after last year’s pro-democracy unrest, drawing a warning from President Donald Trump that Washington would react “very strongly.”

“This bipartisan legislation will impose serious penalties on those working to strip Hong Kong of its autonomy,” Van Hollen said in a statement.

Members of Congress from both parties have been taking a more aggressive tone on China as President Donald Trump has ramped up a war of words with Beijing over responsibility for the global coronavirus pandemic.

· Japan factory output, retail sales seen falling more sharply in April: Reuters poll

Japan’s factory output and retail sales likely fell at the fastest pace in years in April as the coronavirus outbreak hurt the world’s third-largest economy, a Reuters poll found on Friday.

Foreign and domestic demand for Japanese goods has collapsed amid virus lockdowns and supply chain disruptions, adding to views that the economy sank deeper into recession in the current quarter.

Industrial output was expected to fall 5.1% in April from the previous month, the biggest drop since comparable data became available in 2013, the poll of 15 analysts showed on Friday, following a 3.7% decline in March.

Retail sales likely fell 11.5% in April from a year earlier, the fastest pace of decline since March 1998, after a revised 4.7 decline in March.

· China says it will still pay attention to economic growth rate

China will still pay attention to its economic growth rate despite opting not to set a target this year due to heightened uncertainties stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, an official of the country’s cabinet said on Friday.

Sun Guojun, one of the writers for the government’s work report presented to the Chinese parliament earlier in the day, told reporters during a briefing that China opted not to set a growth target because the government cannot accurately predict the economic trajectory due to the uncertainties.

He said economic growth is still important for ensuring that Beijing’s employment and poverty alleviation goals are met.

China is not abandoning growth, he said.

· New Zealand discussing 'helicopter money' handouts to stimulate economy

New Zealand is considering distributing free cash directly to individuals as a way of policy stimulus to help boost the economy reeling from a COVID-19 pandemic driven contraction, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said on Friday.

At a regular news conference Robertson was asked to share details about the government’s plans for launching ‘helicopter money’ - whether it would be the central bank printing money and distributing it or the government increasing its borrowing and then handing it out.

Robertson said the concept was being discussed but “it’s not something that has got to that level of discussion at all.”

“I am pretty keen on making sure that fiscal policy remains the role of the government,” he added.

The idea of helicopter money, or dumping cash unexpectedly onto a struggling economy, is slowly gaining currency among economists and policymakers as the pandemic looks to inflict the worst blow to global growth since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

None of the wealthy countries have embarked on it, though, citing risks such as central bank independence and the risk of flaring long-term inflation.

· U.S. Senate Republican leader threatens 'reexamining' U.S.-China relationship

U.S. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell on Thursday threatened to reexamine the U.S.-Chinese relationship if Beijing pursues a “further crackdown” on Hong Kong, after China was set to impose new national security legislation on the former British colony.

“A further crackdown from Beijing will only intensify the Senate’s interest in reexamining the U.S.-China relationship,” McConnell said in a statement.

· German tax revenues fall 23.5% due to coronavirus pandemic

Tax revenues of the German government and the 16 federal states declined by 23.5% in April from a year earlier to around 39 billion euros ($43 billion) due to the coronavirus pandemic, the finance ministry’s monthly report showed on Friday.

Europe’s largest economy is facing its most severe recession since World War Two as measures to prevent the disease have hampered public life and business.

Early indicators show that the situation will likely remain difficult over the next months, the ministry said.

The revenue decline was most severe for income, corporate and air traffic taxes, the report showed. The pandemic’s impact on tax revenues were first visible in March but has now accelerated.

· Oil drops after China abandons target for 2020 GDP amid coronavirus outbreak

Oil prices slumped on Friday after China’s decision to omit an economic growth target for 2020 renewed concerns that the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic will continue to depress fuel demand in the world’s second-largest oil user.

Brent crude fell $1.56, or 4.3%, to $34.50 a barrel by 0323 GMT, after gaining nearly 1% on Thursday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped by $1.79, or 5.3%, to $32.13 a barrel, having gained more than 1% in the last session.

China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) kicked off a week-long meeting on Friday with the government saying it omitted the 2020 target, while pledging to issue 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) of special treasury bonds to support companies and regions hit by the pandemic.


Reference: CNBC, Reuters, Worldometers

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