· 20 strategists predict the U.S. presidential election — and how stocks will react
A majority of stock market strategists polled by CNBC expect Democratic candidate Joe Biden to win the U.S. presidential race — but they’re significantly split on what the election would mean for stocks.
Fourteen of 20 strategists surveyed by CNBC picked a Biden victory over Donald Trump. Half of the 20 strategists expect the S&P 500 to decline in the first month following election day — though not all those who foresee a stock market slide picked Biden. Five of the 20 expect a rally, four predicted a range-bound market, and one declined to answer.
Eight said they expect a decline of 5% for the S&P 500 in the first month after the election — with three of that group picking Biden, two picking Trump, and two predicting a contested election. Two strategists forecast a 10% decline for the S&P 500 after the election — one of them picked Biden, the other Trump.
When asked what the market’s reaction to a Trump victory would be, 11 respondents said the S&P 500 could rally 5%. Another five said the market would remain range-bound. Some argued that while President Trump has been good for the capital markets during his first term, the upside for markets is capped into 2021, as his limitations on trade and immigration could hurt economic output.
Three strategists picked the S&P 500 finishing above 3,600. Two said it would come in below 3,000.
President Trump, they said, would probably intensify his anti-China stance. However, the pain would be felt more intensely within the technology sector than on the broader trade front.
· Record-breaking stocks take a breather, data weighs on dollar
Stock markets rebounded on Friday following Wall Street’s lead, but were set for their softest week in about a month as investors grapple with tepid economic data and lofty valuations after a huge rally that has wiped out coronavirus losses.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.1% on Friday, as indexes in Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong repaired Thursday’s losses. However, the broad gauge is poised to end the week barely ahead of where it began.
· Nikkei rebounds on Wall Street tech rally, but posts weekly fall
Technology stocks helped Japanese shares edge higher on Friday, following Wall Street’s overnight rally, although investors taking profits ahead of the weekend capped gains.
The benchmark Nikkei share average closed up 0.17% at 22,920.30, after briefly rising over 1% in early trade.
However, the Nikkei lost 1.58% this week after posting two consecutive weeks of gains.
The broader Topix gained 0.3% to 1,604.06.
· China stocks end week higher; techs retreat ahead of reform measures
China stocks ended higher on Friday and posted a weekly rise, as investors cheered a series of solid corporate earnings, though uncertainty over Sino-U.S. trade talks kept a check on gains.
The blue-chip CSI300 index rose 0.9%, to 4,718.84, while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.5% to 3,380.68.
For the week, CSI300 was up 0.3%, while SSEC climbed 0.6%.
Investors found some support from a series of strong first-half earnings from Chinese companies as Beijing ramped up stimulus support to revive an economy hammered by the COVID-19 crisis.
· European stocks open higher ahead of key PMIs, after mixed U.S. data
European stocks opened higher Friday ahead of key economic data out of the euro zone and the U.K., as geopolitical tensions remain in focus.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 climbed 0.5% at the start of trading, travel and leisure stocks jumping out to 1.4% gains as all sectors and major bourses entered positive territory.
Reference: CNBC, Reuters
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