Gold eases as greenback rebounds from 2-year lows
· Gold prices declined, hovering away from a near 2-week high scaled last week, as the dollar attempted a minor recovery after tumbling to multi-years lows on Federal Reserve’s dovish stance.
· Spot gold was trading 0.3 percent lower at $1,959.77 per ounce by 0732 GMT, having hit a high of $1977.18 on Thursday, its highest since August 19. The safe haven metal was down 0.8 percent so far this month, having gained for the last four. U.S. gold futures declined 0.4 percent to $1,967.10.
· Gold has gained nearly 30 percent so far this year, having recorded an all-time high of $2,072.28 earlier this month.
· The dollar index rebounded after plunging to an over 2-year low earlier in the session on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s new policy framework that suggested interest rates would remain low for some time.
· In a speech last Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the virtual Jackson Hole conference said the U.S. central bank would seek to keep inflation at 2 percent, on average, in order to support the labor market and broader economy.
· Risk sentiment slightly improved after data showed activity in China’s services sector expanded at a much faster pace in August, as demand across the economy continues to recover from a coronavirus-induced slump. China's non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 55.2 from 54.2 in July, while August composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, rose to 54.5 from July’s 54.1.
· On Friday, the dollar slumped nearly 1.2 percent to a 1-1/2 week trough against the Japanese yen after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his resignation due to worsening health, stoking doubts about future fiscal and monetary stimulus policies. However, concerns eased somewhat on news Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga would succeed Abe as prime minister.
· The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.1 percent higher at 92.32, having touched a low of 92.15 earlier, its lowest since May 2018 and was on track for its fourth consecutive monthly decline. The U.S. Treasury yields tumbled, with the benchmark 10-year note yield trading at 0.721 percent.
· Investors will closely watch U.S. opinion polls this week in the wake of the political party conventions, while on the data front, the U.S. ISM manufacturing survey is expected to show a continued pickup in activity in August.
· The August payrolls on Friday are forecast to rise 1.4 million with the unemployment rate easing to 9.8 percent.
· A host of Federal Reserve officials are set to speak this week, beginning with Vice Chair Richard Clarida at 1300 GMT and Raphael Bostic at 1430 GMT for fresh clues about the details of the new inflation approach.
· Asian shares notched a fresh two-year high as investors wagered monetary and fiscal policies globally would stay super stimulatory for a protracted period.
· Global coronavirus cases surged past 25 million on Sunday, according to a Reuters tally, as India marked a worldwide record for daily new cases in the COVID-19 pandemic.
· China’s factory activity expanded at a slightly slower pace in August.
· Japan’s factory output rose for a second straight month in July, while retail sales fell for a fifth straight month.
· Speculators reduced their bullish positions in COMEX gold and raised them in silver contracts in the week to Aug. 25.
On the physical side, dealers in India offered the highest discounts on gold in five months last week as a dip in domestic prices failed to revive demand.
· Gold: Best buy levels at 1940 and 1925
Gold – Silver
Gold Spot shorts at the best selling opportunity at 1970/75 worked perfectly on Thursday & Friday.
I would only consider medium term long positions again on a break above 1980.
Silver Spot also in an erratic, volatile sideways trend & likely to remain difficult to trade. More confusing than Gold imo!
Daily Analysis
Gold resistance at 1970/75 is not strong this week. We have done well on shorts here but this time be ready to buy a break above a break above 1980 targeting 1990 & 1996/98.
The best buy levels I believe are at 1940/35 & 1925/20. Longs here need stops below 1915.
Silver holding first support at 2705/00 re-targets resistance at 2735/40. We reached 2769 on Friday, just below the week's high at 2785/90. Watch 2 week's high 2840/44.
Good support at 2670/55. A break below 2645 is a sell signal targeting 2630 & 2605/00, perhaps as far as 2575/70. A break below 2560 risks a slide to 2510, perhaps as far as support at 2485/75.
Trends
Weekly Outlook Neutral
Daily Outlook Neutral
Short Term Outlook Neutral
Reference: CNBC, EconoTimes, FXStreet