· Dollar softer on improved risk appetite, yuan soars
The dollar dipped against riskier currencies on Tuesday as hopes for a Covid-19 vaccine and big corporate deals improved investor appetite for riskier currencies.
The yuan jumped to a 16-month high as a series of Chinese data points to steady economic recovery in China while the Australian dollar was bolstered by policy minutes from the country’s central bank which stopped short of signalling a further cut to the cash rate.
The dollar index slipped to 92.910, pulling away further from a one-month high of 93.664 touched last Wednesday.
The euro inched up 0.2% to $1.1889, extending its rise into a fifth straight day, with an initial resistance seen at around last week’s high of $1.1917.
The dollar traded at 105.66 yen, near its two-week low of 105.55 yen touched on Monday.
The Chinese yuan rose to a 16-month high in both offshore and onshore trade, thanks to China’s robust economic fundamentals.
Industrial output accelerated the most in eight months in August, while retail sales grew for the first time this year, suggesting the economic recovery is gathering pace as demand starts to improve more broadly from the coronavirus crisis.
“We have evidence of strong exports from China while Chinese tourists, who would have spent $260 billion overseas in normal years, are not going abroad this year, reducing yuan selling,” said Ei Kaku, senior strategist at Nomura Securities.
“Chinese authorities have not tried to rein in the yuan’s rise for the past couple of weeks even as it has strengthened, leading people to expect further appreciation in the yuan.”
The yuan’s strength helped to lift MSCI emerging market currency index to a six-month high.
The British pound bounced back to $1.2855, following a fall of 3.66% last week, showing limited reaction after the UK government won an initial Parliamentary vote on its controversial bill to violate the Brexit deal with the European Union.
· EUR/USD testing 1.1900 on dollar weakness, ahead of ZEW
EUR/USD is again benefitting from the weak tone in the US dollar. The greenback is on the offer with macro data releases, painting a positive picture of the Chinese economy. German ZEW survey and Eurozone Labor Cost data could influence the euro.
From a technical perspective, any subsequent positive move beyond the 1.1900 mark is likely to confront a stiff resistance near the 1.1935-40 supply zone. Sustained strength above will negate any near-term bearish bias and push the pair back above the 1.2000 mark. Some follow-through buying beyond YTD tops should pave the way for an extension of the recent bullish trajectory. Bulls might then aim to reclaim the 1.2100 mark before eventually lifting the pair further towards the 1.2190-1.2200 zone.
On the flip side, the 1.1850 region now seems to protect the immediate downside. This is followed by the 1.1800 mark, which if broken might turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall back towards the 1.1750 strong horizontal support. A convincing breakthrough the mentioned support will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag the pair further towards August monthly swing lows, around the 1.1700-1.1695 region.
· UK jobless rate rises for first time since COVID-19 lockdown
Britain’s unemployment rate rose for the first time since the coronavirus lockdown began in March, official data showed on Tuesday.
The unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in the three months to July from 3.9% in the April-June period, the Office for National Statistics said.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the unemployment rate to rise to 4.1%.
However, a fall in the number of people in employment was less severe than expected at 12,000, compared with a median forecast for a fall of 125,000 in the Reuters poll.
· U.S.-China decoupling is underway — but complete divorce is ‘almost impossible,’ says ex-Chinese minister
The process of U.S.-China decoupling started even before the coronavirus pandemic — but a complete separation of the world’s two largest economies is “almost impossible,” according to a former Chinese commerce minister.
As ties between the U.S. and China deteriorate further in recent months, President Donald Trump has threatened to divorce the two economies. But companies from the U.S. and other countries have shown little interest in pulling out of China, said Chen, who is president of the China Association of Enterprises with Foreign Investment.
In fact, there’s been an increase in foreign direct investments into China this year, according to Chen.
Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Singapore’s senior minister and coordinating minister for social policies, similarly said that it’s “very hard to imagine global businesses retreating from China.”
U.S.-China tensions could worsen, but there is “enough space” of the rest of the world to “continue to find ways to have win-win partnerships” with like-minded countries, he said. That includes forging closer ties with the U.S. and with China, he added.
“My sense is things will get worse before they get better,” said Tharman.
· China's domestic travel revenue likely to halve to $394 billion in 2020: report
China’s domestic tourism revenue is expected to fall by 52% to 2.76 trillion yuan ($394 billion) in 2020, according to a report by the China Tourism Academy, as the industry continues to reel from the impact of the coronavirus crisis.
The academy, which is affiliated to China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism, said on Monday that it expected the number of domestic tourists to fall by 43% to 3.43 billion this year.
China, where the coronavirus first emerged late last year, introduced strict lockdowns and measures to curb its spread which are seen to have largely worked, as the country has largely reopened its economy and allowed normal life to resume.
The country’s aviation capacity has snapped back to more than 90% of pre-pandemic levels, but the sector is still working hard to recover from the first half of the year, which saw the number of domestic tourists dropping 62% to 1.17 billion on year, and tourism revenue plummet 77%, according to government data.
· GDP of ‘developing Asia’ set to contract for the first time in nearly six decades, ADB says
Developing Asia, which includes countries like China, India, Indonesia and Singapore, will contract this year for the first time in about six decades as the coronavirus pandemic continues to hammer economies worldwide, the Asian Development Bank said.
In its updated outlook report, ADB said GDP in developing Asia will contract 0.7% this year. The bank also said three-fourths of the region’s economies are set to shrink in 2020, downgrading its GDP forecasts for those countries.
Growth will likely rebound in 2021 with developing Asia expected to register a 6.8% expansion. India is set to grow 8% for the next calendar year, according to the report.
Southeast Asia was previously expected to grow 1% for the year, but is now predicted to contract 3.8%, with Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore each set to experience declines of more than 6%, the ADB said. The Philippines and Indonesia have reported the most number of infections among Southeast Asian countries.
China, where the coronavirus outbreak was first reported in late-December, is the only country that is expected to register positive growth, albeit far below levels the world’s second-largest economy has reported in recent years. China is set to register a 1.8% expansion in 2020, down from an earlier forecast of 2.3%, as its economy slowly gets back on track, according to the report.
India is predicted to register a 9% decline for the calendar year 2020, the ADB said. That was revised down from an earlier forecast of 4% growth. India’s fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31 the following year. In the three months between April and June, India’s economy shrank at its steepest pace of 23.9% following a national lockdown between April and May.
· Oil prices drop as bleaker fuel demand outlook weighs on market
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as worries over a slow recovery in global fuel demand, depressed by the coronavirus pandemic, chimed with bleak outlook warnings by major oil producers.
Brent crude LCOc1 was down 4 cents, or 0.1%, at $39.57 a barrel by 0642 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 2 cents, or 0.1%, at $37.24 a barrel. Both contracts ended slightly lower the previous day.
Reference: CNBC, Reuters