• MTS Economic News 20201119

    19 Nov 2020 | Economic News

· BITCOIN BULL MARKET TO CONTINUE IN 2021 AS CITI PREDICTS 20% DOLLAR CRASH

Many analysts agreed that MicroStrategy’s investment in the Bitcoin market prompted many other corporations, investors, family offices, and asset managers to look at the cryptocurrency from a different perspective: that of a store of value asset that can protect its holders from inflation. Now, many of them have openly admitted that they have purchased Bitcoin.

The result is visible across the cryptocurrency’s spot and derivatives markets. The BTC/USD exchange rate is now up by almost 150 percent in 2020, having topped near $18,500. Analysts expect the pair to continue its rally towards $20,000, its record high established in December 2017.


GREENBACK IN TROUBLE

Covid vaccine rollout could cause US dollar crash, warns Citibank


The widespread distribution of vaccines to combat the coronavirus pandemic and ongoing monetary easing could lead to the US dollar weakening as much as 20 percent next year, according to Citibank.


· Current dollar's downfall is well deserved and mostly understandable, but it’s not endless

The current downfall of the dollar is well deserved and mostly understandable, but it's not endless. The charts and professional positioning can easily start to kick it in the teeth.

China Saga: In our ongoing capitulation to the China threat, another corporate bond default reminded us that China is more than the state and the state has some problems itself. The WSJ reports an auto company just defaulted and caused a loss of investor confidence in the local governments that stand behind many issuers.

About those Trump lawsuits: they have mostly failed so far, some of them embarrassingly as judges point out the Trump lawyers have no evidence.

Pennsylvania is the focus, but there is no case that could result in enough votes to overturn the Biden 68,000 lead in that state.


· Vaccine arrival expected to trigger dollar slump in 2021 – FT

Amid the on-going coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine saga, the Financial Times (FT) came out with a piece, relying on the Wall Street analysts, to suggest a 20% drop in the US dollar index (DXY) during the year 2021 if vaccines trigger an economic rebound.

Further, “Goldman Sachs expects the dollar to slide 6 percent on a trade-weighted basis over the next 12 months, said the FT piece while also marking the bears from the Deutsche Bank, TD Securities and Barclays.

That said, the DXY keeps pullback from the eight-day low while taking rounds to 92.43 during the early Thursday.


· Ahead of recount results, Georgia officials say Biden likely to remain the winner

Georgia’s top election official, a Republican, has said a labor-intensive hand recount likely will not erode Biden’s initial 14,000 vote margin enough to hand Trump a victory in the state.

Biden has captured 306 electoral-college votes to Trump’s 232.


· Jamie Dimon lashes out at ‘childish behavior’ from Congress amid deadlock over coronavirus relief

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon criticized lawmakers for a monthslong deadlock over a second round of coronavirus relief to help unemployed Americans and struggling businesses as the pandemic deepens.

“There is a big part of our country that is really struggling … that is what we should be focusing on,” Dimon said. “It has zero to do with Democrats and Republicans.”

He added that “If stimulus doesn’t come, the probability of having a good economic outcome drops.”


‘Taxes have to go up’

When asked about the possibility that President-elect Joe Biden will raise taxes on corporations and people making more than $400,000, Dimon acknowledged the government’s need to have more revenue, though he said the priority should be increasing U.S. economic growth.

“Yes, taxes have to go up somewhere, and I completely understand that,” Dimon said. “There are taxes that hurt growth and taxes that don’t; so taxing my income a bit more, that doesn’t hurt growth; taxing capital formation over time hurts growth.”


· U.S. COVID deaths top 250,000 as New York City schools halt in-person classes

A supply chain is a network between a company and its suppliers to produce and distribute the firm’s products.


· ‘Thanksgiving could be a massive superspreader event,’ Rhode Island emergency room doctor says


· Oxford Covid vaccine trials indicate it is safe, produces similar immune response among all adults

The preliminary findings of a phase two trial show that the coronavirus vaccine being developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca is safe and triggers a similar immune response among all adults.

The promising early-stage results were published in The Lancet, one of the world’s top medical journals, on Thursday.

The study of 560 healthy adults, including 240 over the age of 70-years-old, found the vaccine to be safe and produced a similar immune response among people aged over 56-years-old and those aged between 18 and 55.


· Post-Brexit UK announces largest military investment since Cold War

Britain pledged to end the “era of retreat” by announcing the biggest military investment since the end of the Cold War, despite the coronavirus crisis pummelling the economy, as it seeks to define its post-Brexit role on the world stage.

· UK is not abandoning international aid, defence secretary says
Britain is not abandoning its commitment to providing international aid amid media reports its budget will be cut drastically, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said on Thursday.


· Ukraine reports new daily high coronavirus cases, deaths: minister

Ukraine registered a record of 13,357 new COVID-19 cases in the past 24 hours, health minister Maksym Stepanov said on Thursday, up from a previous record of 12,524 cases reported last week.

He said the number of coronavirus related deaths had also hit a new high of 257 compared with the previous record of 256 deaths.

The total number of COVID cases climbed to 583,510 with 10,369 deaths.


· Japan's capital raises coronavirus alert to highest as cases set record

The Japanese capital of Tokyo posted the highest coronavirus alert level on Thursday with its daily tally of new cases set for a record high of more than 500, and its governor warned of much worse unless action is taken.

The nationwide tally also hit a new high of 2,201 on Wednesday, according to state broadcaster NHK.


· Most Japan firms cancel year-end bashes due to COVID-19, survey shows

Nearly 90% of Japanese companies plan to skip year-end and New Year parties to prevent the spread of COVID-19, a private survey showed on Thursday, underscoring the pain the coronavirus pandemic is inflicting on an already weak economy.


· Japan weighs tax incentives to reach PM's goals on digital, zero emissions

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) kicked off debates on Thursday on tax incentives next fiscal year to help Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga push his agenda on digitalisation and zero carbon emission backed by private-sector investment.

The incentives are expected to help pivot the world’s third- largest economy away from heavy government stimulus and back to private sector-led sustainable growth, after suffering the record postwar slump due to the COVID-19 pandemic in April-June.


· Asia-Pacific leaders push for freer trade after Trump

Asia-Pacific leaders called on Thursday for open and multilateral trade to support a global economy battered by the novel coronavirus, and some hoped for more engagement with the United States under a Joe Biden administration.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, among the leaders at a virtual meeting of the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, rejected protectionism and said globalisation was “irreversible”, a day before U.S. President Donald Trump was expected to join in the gathering.

“We will not reverse course or run against historical trend by ‘decoupling’ or forming a small circle to keep others out,” Xi said at a forum ahead of the APEC leaders meeting to be held virtually in Kuala Lumpur on Friday.

“China will remain committed to openness and cooperation, and adhere to multilateralism and the principle of extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits,” he said.

Xi said “mounting unilateralism, protectionism and bullying as well as backlash against economic globalisation” had added to risks and uncertainties in the world economy.


· China to cut tariffs, boost imports of high-quality goods and services: Xi

China will continue to cut its tariffs and expand imports of high-quality goods and services, Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Thursday, while vowing to push reforms and promote an innovation-driven growth model.

“We will further reduce tariffs and institutional costs..., and expand imports of high-quality products and services from all countries,” Xi said in a keynote speech delivered via video at the APEC CEO Dialogues, ahead of a leaders’ virtual summit on the future of international cooperation on Friday.

China will pursue higher quality growth through its “dual circulation” development model, driven by technological innovation, Xi said.


· Salaries in Asia Pacific projected to grow the most globally in 2021

Salaries in Asia Pacific are forecast to grow at a greater rate than any other part of the world in 2021, in a signal that employers believe the region is emerging from the worst of the pandemic.

Asia Pacific pay packets are expected to rise by an average of 4.3% next year, up from 3.2% in 2020, even as global wages falter, according to a new salary report released Thursday by consultancy firm ECA International.

After accounting for inflation, that translates to average regional real wage growth of 1.7% — well ahead of the global standard of 0.5% despite comparable average inflation rates.


· India’s drugmakers will be ‘essential’ in Covid-19 therapy production, says public health expert

India’s generic drugmakers will have an “essential” role to play in rolling out Covid-19 therapeutics to low- and middle-income countries, a United Nations-backed public health body has said.


· Global and local supply chains must split and technology will play a bigger role, investor says

A split between global and local supply chains will be important in the event of another crisis like the global pandemic, said the chief executive and founde


· Thai PM says all laws to be used against protesters

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said on Thursday that all laws would be used against protesters who break them, as demonstrations escalate for his removal and for reforms to curb the powers of King Maha Vajiralongkorn.


· Oil prices ease as rising COVID-19 cases outweigh vaccine optimism

Oil futures eased on Thursday, surrendering some gains from the previous day as the surge in coronavirus cases and tighter economic restrictions around the globe stoked fears over slower fuel demand, outweighing upbeat vaccine news.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 shed 17 cents, or 0.4%, to $44.17 a barrel by 0345 GMT, after gaining 1.4% on the previous day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 declined 29 cents, or 0.7%, to $41.53 a barrel, having risen nearly 1% on Wednesday.


· Global crude market finds support mainly from China demand

China, the global oil market’s lifeline this year, has stepped up purchases from exporters like Russia, the United States and Angola in recent weeks, while buyers elsewhere pare orders as coronavirus infections surge and fresh lockdowns are put in place.

China, the world’s largest importer of crude, is the only major buyer expected to see increased oil demand this year as the pandemic destroyed consumption globally.


Graphic: Global oil demand by region during Q2 and Q3 2020,

With China's imports expected to reach 12 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, sellers are lining up shipments to retain market share as worldwide oil consumption is expected to fall by nearly 9% in 2020.


Reference: CNBC, Reuters, FXStreet, Financial Times, RT, Bitcoinist


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